I have always considered a 5% change to be a big deal. If your wages go up or down by 5%, it's a big deal. If your taxes go up or down by 5%, it's a big deal. If the supply of oil changes by 2%, it's a big deal (I know because this is where I live). So, here in Ohio, gun sales went up by 10% in 2020, and all those new gun owners are going to want ammo. That's a big deal. Half of the population is/was terrified of Trump goon squads, and the rest are afraid of Biden. Ammo won't be readily available until everyone's nerves are settled.