Originally Posted By: Stan
Originally Posted By: L Brown
As for it being "the economy, stupid" . . . do you raise any corn or soybeans down there in GA? Lots of that grown up this way in the Midwest. And that segment of the economy--have you looked at the futures lately?--has taken a sharp nosedive since Trump started messing around with tariffs. Causing many farmers who voted for Trump to wonder whether those tariffs are going to hurt China worse than they'll hurt American farmers. And ag-related industries in general. My father put food on our table making John Deere tractors. Wonder how tractor and combine sales will look this year.


Let's get this done, now. Do we raise any corn or soybeans down here?................funny question coming from a former spook analyst, but yes, we do. We raise more cotton and peanuts, however. Cotton was trading the highest in many years prior to the tariff "fright", at almost $.94. It fell to about $.82 in a week, and has already recovered to $.88, halfway back to it's original high, and in a short time. Why?.... fundamentals. Supply and demand, not deterred by unsubstantiated fears. Corn and beans have yet to recover. Lest you misunderstand, cotton is an overseas traded crop just like corn and beans.

As for how farmers vote........well, I can't say what motivates any individual except me. I vote guided by my morals and ethics, not my pocketbook. What I mean is, if I had always voted for the ticket that would have put the most money in my banking accounts I would have voted Democratic, for a long, long time. The Dems have had a history of putting more money into the Farm Bill for agriculture than the Repubs. But, I didn't. I voted the moral high ground, and doing so I knew I was voting against higher subsidies and deficiency payments. Money isn't the sole driver of all the farm vote. Some in ag have a conscience, and follow it, subsidies be damned. Just as a reminder, every major tariff on sales of US grains have been placed by the Repubs.

I'm good friends with all the owners and managers of the JD, Case and New Holland dealerships in this part of the country. If you think they're wishing, right now, that Hillary had been elected instead of Trump you'd be bad wrong. They, like I, understand that everyone has to take a hit occasionally to help get things straightened out. And, want to believe it or not, our trading "partners" need our produce a lot more than we need theirs. Time will straighten it all out, and we'll be much better off for it. I'm staking my business on my belief of that. Are you?

SRH




So Stan . . . sounds like YOU don't raise any corn or soybeans. Cotton . . . sure, overseas traded. Is there a Chinese tariff on cotton? If not, that might explain why cotton prices have "recovered", while soybean prices have not. And given that corn and soybeans are, for all practical purposes, the only two crops of significance in Iowa, it's not likely that Deere will be selling much new equipment to Iowa farmers this year . . . in a state where a lot of that equipment is produced. So, a double whammy for the economy in Iowa.

I'd also note that staunchly conservative Republican Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin has sent Trump a letter pointing out the impact of the trade war on his state's economy. Long term gains? Will there be any? Many economists don't think it's a good bet.

As for Dems putting more money into farmers' pockets than Republicans, it's worth noting that the Conservation Reserve Program, which basically solved the farm crisis in Iowa (a result, under your former Governor Carter, of pushing farmers to farm fencerow to fencerow and feed the world--and then slap a grain embargo on Russia to punish them for invading Afghanistan) came into being under President Reagan. Certainly in this part of the country, Carter's grain embargo hurt a whole lot more than any tariffs imposed in recent history. A lot of Iowa farmers went broke during the 80's farm crisis. Fortunately, CRP--which many tend to forget was at least as much an attempt to reduce oversupply and raise prices as it was a conservation program--succeeded on the supply/price side.

I don't really have a "business", Stan . . . other than cashing the occasional check for magazine articles. My belief has always been in the welfare of my country . . . proof of which being that my main source of income is my monthly retirement check, based on 30+ years' military service. Uncle Sam was a good boss. And including Social Security, I'm now a happy double dipper.