doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com OT-Stock (equities) opinion/advice

For any here who are familiar with and have worked in the energy sector, what are your thoughts on Transocean (symbol: RIG) as a buy. Price has almost doubled in 6 weeks time. Thanks.
JR

I'm reasonably familiar with it having owned it in the past. With it being an offshore driller, a much more expensive method of getting oil as compared to more conventional methods, their earnings can be more difficult to predict during times of substantially fluctuating crude oil prices. In other words, when oil is relatively cheap, the demand for offshore drilling can significantly decrease, and vice versa when the oil prices are higher.
The biggest factor, however in recent weeks as far as the stock price goes, has very little to do with any of that. With Transocean's stock having traded over much of the past 20 years in the $20-$160 range, a huge portion of the investors in the stock have had large unrealized losses. People don't do their tax planning for a particular tax year in February. People don't do it in September. They are, however, going to do it before year-end. As the Christmas holidays approach, people start looking for things they can do to reduce their tax burdens. By Christmas, most of this year-end tax planning is over as investors dump holdings with substantial losses so they the can use the losses to offset gains elsewhere, or either harvest them for future years. Dumping RIG in December, for many of their stockholders, was the thing to do, even if they liked the company and wanted to buy it back in 30 days to avoid a wash sale. All of this creates a very unusual downdraft in the stock as the large supply of sell orders hits at one time, typically pushing such a stock to well below its fair valuation.
When January arrives, the year-end selling is long over. Any that had any near-term need to sell that stock likely has already done it. What then happens? You have a significant updraft in the stock price, one that can be very rewarding for those that know how to take advantage of these annual year-end stock valuation phenomenons. This year we've seen similar stock movements in many of the tech stocks. RIG had a similar jump from 12/21 to 1/22. Tax policy causes people to do the same things year after year.
I've utilized this stock trading technique for years; even used to have a contest in my office where everyone would put in $10 and pick a stock that could benefit from the "year-end effect." The stock that goes up the largest percentage from the entry date until January 10th would win all of the money.
I annually look for a stock or two to buy that uses this strategy. This year I bought C3AI (AI-NYSE). I bought it in December at $10.50. It's up another $2 per share today at $22.

Lonny keeps telling me to dump it. Bought some, sold some (when it was high) still have some. I keep hoping the idiots that run energy policy will figure out you can’t land a 747 with windmills and solar panels, but, there is no sign of that just yet.

Especially in Nazi Minnesota:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/m...0-carbon-free-energy-by-2040/ar-AA16MOLv

They ain’t going to be happy until there are dead people to deal with.

Best,
Ted

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Beats Detroit, though.......

Speaking of 747's: https://apnews.com/article/boeing-delivering-the-last-747-018b4b60e8d8a40aa5bf039c47d81a9a

There ya go, John. Looks like a strong buy. Load the boat.


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Ted, if only ugly was money………

I spent a lot of years in the commodity brokerage business and as an individual trader of equities. Best advice I can give you is to buy when no one else wants to and sell when everyone wants it. Hard not to follow the crowd but if you have the fortitude it will pay big dividends. Seems to me the boat has already sailed with Transocean.

I know zero about stocks. Spent my life following the commodities markets. But I read about something recently that may, or may not, affect your decision about Transocean. It might pay to do a search for e fuels and read up on it before pulling the trigger.

Looks like it hit an iceberg back in ought eight and is slowing sinking with Ted on the bow holding the bag.


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Imma put a short strangle on it tomorrow see if I can get some free tires for the CB.

Worked for BP offshore GOM.Rig rates are at a 10 year high but all oil stocks are topping out.Remember Macondo Trans had their gas safety system in bypass when the well kicked.Just buy Exxon in the big drops and hold.jmho

Hey there Stan.How was your duck hunting foray to AK with your boys? Hope you didn't get hit with the ice storms. Our last series bonus Goose season closes this week-end, got out to the river yesterday, got one Canada goose- might be finis, as at 81-cold weather gets to be a factor-- Stock Market. When I was about 12 I asked my maternal Grandfather about this entity- he was down to earth, like you, he invested in commodities, as people always will need food items, and also had farm roots-- Here was his reply: "Son, take that word stockbroker, and break it down-- You buy his stocks, and then get broker than you were before".. He also taught me to do business C.I.F."" cash in fist. IMO, the stockmarket is a rigged game. We keep our $ in the bank, where it is insured by the FDIC. Show me a man who can guarantee you a return if you invest with him, and I'll show you a con man.. RWTF