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rapidly changing weather, is certainly evident here in northern new england, as well...where the ruffed grouse is also becoming extinct...the last hold out area, being northern maine...


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We've had good rainfall here in Michigan, so perhaps.............
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Lots of early stage forests, ideal ruffed grouse habitat, are being created in W. Ontario. We have been in the smoke haze for a month and it continues today. A Google Earth map of the burned areas would be interesting. Most of ND is in extreme drought, so duck production will be way down.

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Originally Posted by Stanton Hillis
....the Pacific Northwest, which is normally very wet all summer, is experiencing the hottest and driest summer in recent history....
Many of the potholes are dry or very low up in the duck factory, and it's been a pretty noticeable Western fire season. I think the nesting success has been down, or at least that's what it looks like. It might be a tough fall waterfowl season.

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Originally Posted by craigd
Originally Posted by Stanton Hillis
....the Pacific Northwest, which is normally very wet all summer, is experiencing the hottest and driest summer in recent history....
Many of the potholes are dry or very low up in the duck factory, and it's been a pretty noticeable Western fire season. I think the nesting success has been down, or at least that's what it looks like. It might be a tough fall waterfowl season.

I hear you, Craig. But, just as weather differs in various parts of the country, so do duck numbers due to that weather. I fully understand the importance of good nesting seasons to the overall duck numbers, but the biggest determining factor on how many big ducks we get down here isn't how good a nesting season they had, rather it's how cold it gets up there. It takes lots of extended cold up north to push any significant numbers of big ducks this far south. I'm hoping for lots of cold up there this winter!


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Latest from ND that has more of the pothole region than any other state:

Mon, 08/02/2021
State Game and Fish Department biologists expect a fall flight of ducks in North Dakota this fall that will be unfamiliar to many hunters.

Mike Szymanski, Department migratory game bird management supervisor, said based on observations from the annual mid-July duck production survey, the 2021 fall flight is anticipated to be down 36% from last year, and similar to the 1970, 1979 and 1994 fall flights.

“Hunters should expect waterfowl hunting to be difficult in North Dakota this year, with the lone bright spot being Canada goose hunting. Nonetheless, localized concentrations of ducks, geese and swans will materialize throughout the hunting season as birds migrate through the state,” Szymanski said. “Hunters should take advantage of early migrants like blue-winged teal during the first two weeks of the season. We won’t be able to depend on local duck production to the extent that we have in the past.”

Drought has severely impacted breeding duck habitats across North Dakota. Breeding conditions varied from very poor to fair, and the wetland index declined by 80%.

While 2.9 million ducks were estimated during the Department’s 74th annual breeding duck survey in May, Szymanski said then that behavioral cues suggested breeding efforts by those ducks would be low.

He was correct.

“Conditions are not good statewide and, after a high count in 2020, the decline in wetlands counted represented the largest one-year percentage-based decline in the 74-year history of the survey,” he said. “Overall, this year’s breeding duck index was the 48th highest on record, down 27% from last year, but still 19% above the long-term average.”

The number of broods observed during the Department’s July brood survey dropped 49% from last year’s count and 23% below the 1965-2020 average. While the number of broods observed is the lowest since 1994, the count this year was still 62% above the 1965-1993 average. The average brood size was 6.46 ducklings, down 4% from last year’s estimate.

The summer duck brood survey involves 18 routes that cover all sectors of the state, except west and south of the Missouri River. Biologists count and classify duck broods and water areas within 220 yards on each side of the road. The survey started in the mid-1950s, and all routes used today have been in place since 1965.

Game and Fish biologists will conduct a separate survey in mid-September to assess wetland conditions heading into the waterfowl hunting season.

“At this point, we are not overly concerned about undue negative impacts of the harvest on ducks during this season, but we’ll re-evaluate the situation during the federal regulations process,” Szymanski said. “One year of drought won’t be a disaster for ducks, but we could have issues if these conditions continue into next year.”

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Thanks Stan, yup It makes sense to pay attention to the weather, where ever North is of the hunt. For some areas, you don't need an extended cold snap. Literally, small water can freeze overnight, and the ducks are gone. When my boy was younger we were on a decent duck hunt on fairly big, maybe a few thousand shallow acres, water and there was an overnight cold snap. I told him to just forget it, but he insisted that we check it out the next morning. There was a small handful of high flying geese headed somewhere else, and a solid sheet of ice. My boy was skating around, there was nothing to hunt. I knew it was easily wadable, so I was half hoping he would break through for not listening and staying off. It's true though, the big ducks will tend to hold out the longest. I think you may be located in wintering grounds, but the big boys might tend to short stop above you.

If I am not mistaken, the generic forecasts are for a late start to winter, maybe well into November before the ducks get pushed out of the potholes. But, on just casual observing, nothing official, there are few ducklings around the hens, the potholes are small and shrinking, and lots of predator activity. Hay is supposed to be in short supply this winter in large parts of northern plains. I think it's a tough season to be a first year bird, trying to grow and prep for migrating. It's just some thoughts.

I would edit to add a thanks much to Hal for his report.

Last edited by craigd; 08/17/21 09:37 PM.
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Eddie, if you even had half a mind, you'd be dangerous-RWTF


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