doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com gun vs. bear

To be personal JRH, I do just fine
and I also know that there is only on "f" in professionally and that you should not take investment advice from guys on the internet like you JRH .

Nice Dave...too bad those three letters words are so difficult for you...LOL (Didn't your Mom ever teach you that people that live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones...)

As far as giving advice, you are the only one I have seen here tell folks what they should or shouldn't be doing..."buy gold for the next -2000 fall".

I on other hand have simply shared my personal opinion...as well as the facts concerning my actual actions...all of which are based on well over a decade of institutional trading experience...including order execution for most of the world's largest Hedge Funds, Pension Funds and Asset Managers....(aka the "Generals")

"You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink"

JRH

Uh? I thought this was a double gun forum? What is this all about? Mine is bigger than yours? ! GEEZ........JRH, Ya wanna hedge my pet turtle?

LOL...Last Dollar,

Yes...this was a discussion of gun values and recent sale prices, and yes, despite my earlier involvement discussing several firearms I recently sold it did evolve off topic.

Hopefully, now that the facts are laid out they will speak for themselves, and we'll be done with that discussion...or back on topic in short order.

JRH

(BTW, as an aside, for anyone that reads Jim Cramers website, "Realmoney", look for an article essentially "discusing why the market bottomed where it did" tomorrow where much of what I just wrote is qouted by a contributer. The long time friend and private asset manager just called and did a quick interview with me and thanked me for having provided him and his clients that same info two days ago...)

One last thing I wanted to add...

If anyone ever gets interested in learning about what makes the markets go round...or just wants to talk "guns and money"...While I admittedly know a good bit less about my "guns"...I am always happy to share what I've learned about "money" and can always be reached via PM...

JRH

(Here is a snippet of the type of analysis I do "for fun" these days.)
------------------------------------------------
Technical Analysis
Retracement Patterns, Not the News, Are Calling Every Turn
By Harry Schiller
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/25/2008 5:22 PM EST
URL: [url]http://www.thestreet.com/p/rmoney/technicalanalysis/10400567.html[/url]

Tuesday's selloff, (following the rate-cut news), left many wondering if the market would ever bottom, or if it would just drop forever. But there were signs that a low was near, and those signs were cemented during Wednesday morning's selloff.

Since then, the Dow has already rebounded a neat 850 points, or about one-third of the massive 2563 points it lost from the October all-time highs down to Tuesday's 16-month lows.

Of note, that drop took about 100 days. And now in just three days, we have seen a 32% retracement of the entire decline, which is one reason to suggest that the rebound has gone far enough for now.

There are other reasons as well.

Let's first look at the long-term chart of the S&P (cash), which may have called the bottom to the decline.

Here you will note that the index bottomed way back on Oct. 10, 2002, at 768.63. Now fast forward exactly five years and a day to the October 2007 all-time high at 1576.09. That run was 807 points in almost exactly five years.

The .382 Fibonacci retracement of that massive move comes in at 1268. Of course, Wednesday's low was 1270.05, which may have been close enough for now. It was also a bullish sign that on Wednesday the cash made a new low, while the futures held well above Tuesday's lows.

As a follow up to this thread that explained the technical reasons why (equity) asset values were going to have a temporary reprieve from their monstrous declines at the start of the year, (And thus a good window to sell firearms of marginal investment value), I felt somewhat obligated to complete the thought process and also place into the record the time at which such a bounce for all intensive purposes had run its course. (A great time to have cash to start haggling on investment grade guns, or even to consider purchasing the shooters one has always dreamed of owning.)

Therefore today, after the market had its enormous multi-month technical bounce off the .382 retracement of the previous Bear Market(see previous posts for a real time explanation), having gained well over 10%+ in less than three months time...(and lets face it...the fundamentals had absolutely zero to do with this bounce as they have unquestionably only deteriorated over the past several months)...I now have to conclude my previous call and suggest the astute buyer/collector prepare themselves for another another leg down in the net worth of the average gun buyer.
(Of course, depending on each individuals collections, or interests, this will have a decidedly different effect on their buying/selling/shooting habits that only they can determine...However, I wanted to be sure to provide some conclusion to my previous call...)

JC

I fogot to add for Dave's sake....

Having done just the opposite of Dave's "fundamental" thoughts....(not buying gold and instead investing in equities when in fact one of the best "buying opportunities" of a lifetime had come along.) I have today exited my equity holdings...and now...three months later with gold having moved absolutely nowhere...I have utilized my profits to pick up a "starter" gold position for the first time in many mooons ...

JC

Is the cOw-boy'd Beesley for sale ?

Can't say as I know what your talkin bout...however judgin by the local for sale ads...everything is for sale...and cheap at that..LOL

JC

It's always interesting to read such an array of opinions concerning the economy. All I can say about the ownership of gold vs. stocks is that it's real tough to buy groceries and guns with the non existent dividends that gold pays. As long as my stocks continue to pay dividends (and they always have), I don't really care what they're worth, because they aren't for sale!