doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com Old Churchill Shotgun

I looked through the photos until photo bucket overloaded on ads and quit displaying photos (24/36). I respectfully disagree slightly with some of the foregoing as follows.

Churchill is a Brand Value level two (BV2) name.

The gun appears to me to be an "A" grade BLE which is Original Quality grade two (OQ2). The back action locks, through lump, NSTTF, and third fastener design don't usually go with best work SLE's; this gun is from 1898, not 1889, and is a few years behind best SLE fashion.

The Current Condition level strikes me as level six (CC6 - shootable, but needs minor repairs and refurbishing).

BV2-OQ2-CC6 = $4,652.

Questions?

DDA

"Rocketman," your mathematical formulations have been a source of amazement and interest for some time. Would that it is possible to reduce what is an emotive decision to the product of insensate numbers. I think the closest one can come to such reduction is the concept of 'utility' as often used in labor economics courses, which was also a subject of personal fascination at university. The concept asserts that a rational or reasonable person can be persuaded to do something, or not, based on the degree and effect of monetary persuasion on a so-called reasonable man.

An example: Would I prefer to earn another several hour's overtime pay or take the new blond co-worker to an evening concert in lieu of earning more money by working the available overtime, which selection process is overlaid with my company's desire to understand and thereby formulate what level of persuasion would cause me to choose either scenario, or define for management the 'utility' of the choices presented that will tip my decision one way or the other. If successfully developed for management, this formula would allow them to control employee work behavior, and in this example, employee availability and desire for overtime work. In other words, how much more per hour would management need to pay me to select work over a date with an attractive blond? After much diligent research on 'utility,' what we determined is that whenever the emotive factor was mixed with our sterile, lifeless though earnest mathematical calculations, we produced no consistent results, or those that were, for all intents and purposes, rather meaningless and inapplicable to reliably prognosticating actual or future events. I suppose we could have employed some known statistical theories to predict likely outcomes, but the class ended and the lot of us dispersed to carry on other endeavors, elsewhere.

Here we have an antique E. J. Churchill gun in need of some sensitive restoration due to normal and expected wear, although it is nonetheless attractive to me and surely others also. Let us presume the gun is on offer, and we will further posit that we have seen an antique Holland & Holland, of similar condition and built on the Scott action, also on offer. No price is given for either, but from experience or after considering outside advice, it is thought their respective value is close to the same.

Which do I prefer, or do I not prefer one over the other, or perhaps do not care for either gun? If I decide I must choose between them, I proceed to look for flaws and attributes possessed by each and decide which are important to me and will thus become eventually determinative. These choices are in essence emotive in nature and not really quantitative, or would be unless all interested parties possessed equal emotions and would then take the same emotive-based decisions.

Value is in the eyes of the beholder. What I would pay for a gun is likely not the same as others would pay. Historically, I have done this many times, in order to secure the object of my desire and deny it to others, even when I could have paid much less if I had chosen to simply take my chances. So what shall we do in reasonably determining a monetary value, say, with so many emotional variables involved? Well, we have the earlier suggested value numbers, based subjectively on recent experience and personal reaction to a particular gun, as well as the admixture of objective observations concerning the gun.

My market value estimate, if memory serves, was $4,000-5,500. You derived your $4,652 figure by complex calculation. The midpoint ($4,000 + $5,500 = $9,500 / 2 = $4,750) for my value range is $4,750, which is plus some $100 when compared to the aforementioned $4,652 product; a negligible difference. Two very different approaches have yielded nearly the same result. Most interesting and even perhaps intriguing.


Regards,

Edwardian

I've run some comparison tests on Rocketman's formula against no reserve auctions listed on Gunbroker, hey I'm retired ok so I have a lot of time on my hands, and his formulas is either dead on or real close.

Not having a lot of experience in guns and only having limited knowledge of economic theorems (although I am highly analytical due to my extensive math background), I honestly do not know what your acronyms mean and am having difficulty finding what they mean on the internet.

Lew,
Rocketman developed the system and acronyms.
BV= Brand Value
OQ= Original quality level of the gun
CC= Current Condition

his system takes these factors in to account to track market value.

Nice gun....I really like the Churchill scroll.

Thanks, Edwardian, trelbig, and SKB.

Lew, the value system is used mostly on this site since it was developed primarily for the guns most of interest to this site. The data used is auction numbers - pretty close to a pure market. Since this is not intended to represent a "price" (amount agreed to by a willing buyer and willing seller), it does not pose any accuracy level. It was developed to "jump start" understanding of market value of Brit/Continental SXS guns from 1890ish to 1960ish. The definitions are intentionally simplified - no need to overthink it. There are five layers of BV level based charts, each with nine OQ grades vs nine CC levels; 405 pigeon holes.

Edwardian is ultimately correct in how one must decide on a willing buyer offer. However, my system will give you an objective starting point relative to the market. While never meant to supplant experience based intuition, it does offer a framework for information organization. That Edwardian's intuition and my system are very close should not be a surprise, rather mutual confirmation (same answer from two different methods).


Questions?

DDA

Lew,

If you'd have posted a month ago, I'd have suggested driving down to Sanford for the Southern SxS Classic. Lots of knowledgeable vendors and sellers, some even from England, who would be qualified to handle the gun in person and opine.

I think the online appraisals you'll get here are just as good as what you will find locally in central NC. Perhaps Cherry's Guns in Greensboro would be willing to give you an appraisal, and while they have a lot of old guns, they are not fine SxS specialists.

Looks all the world like another one of Messers Webley and Scott's guns . What would the trade have done without them !

Well.... W.W. Greener would've picked up the slack. :-)

I doubt that .Greener did not make sidelocks and the Fasil Princip action was to distinctive to be adapted to others requirements not to mention to out dated .