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For any here who are familiar with and have worked in the energy sector, what are your thoughts on Transocean (symbol: RIG) as a buy. Price has almost doubled in 6 weeks time. Thanks.
JR

Lonny keeps telling me to dump it. Bought some, sold some (when it was high) still have some. I keep hoping the idiots that run energy policy will figure out you can’t land a 747 with windmills and solar panels, but, there is no sign of that just yet.

Especially in Nazi Minnesota:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/m...0-carbon-free-energy-by-2040/ar-AA16MOLv

They ain’t going to be happy until there are dead people to deal with.

Best,
Ted

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Beats Detroit, though.......

I'm reasonably familiar with it having owned it in the past. With it being an offshore driller, a much more expensive method of getting oil as compared to more conventional methods, their earnings can be more difficult to predict during times of substantially fluctuating crude oil prices. In other words, when oil is relatively cheap, the demand for offshore drilling can significantly decrease, and vice versa when the oil prices are higher.
The biggest factor, however in recent weeks as far as the stock price goes, has very little to do with any of that. With Transocean's stock having traded over much of the past 20 years in the $20-$160 range, a huge portion of the investors in the stock have had large unrealized losses. People don't do their tax planning for a particular tax year in February. People don't do it in September. They are, however, going to do it before year-end. As the Christmas holidays approach, people start looking for things they can do to reduce their tax burdens. By Christmas, most of this year-end tax planning is over as investors dump holdings with substantial losses so they the can use the losses to offset gains elsewhere, or either harvest them for future years. Dumping RIG in December, for many of their stockholders, was the thing to do, even if they liked the company and wanted to buy it back in 30 days to avoid a wash sale. All of this creates a very unusual downdraft in the stock as the large supply of sell orders hits at one time, typically pushing such a stock to well below its fair valuation.
When January arrives, the year-end selling is long over. Any that had any near-term need to sell that stock likely has already done it. What then happens? You have a significant updraft in the stock price, one that can be very rewarding for those that know how to take advantage of these annual year-end stock valuation phenomenons. This year we've seen similar stock movements in many of the tech stocks. RIG had a similar jump from 12/21 to 1/22. Tax policy causes people to do the same things year after year.
I've utilized this stock trading technique for years; even used to have a contest in my office where everyone would put in $10 and pick a stock that could benefit from the "year-end effect." The stock that goes up the largest percentage from the entry date until January 10th would win all of the money.
I annually look for a stock or two to buy that uses this strategy. This year I bought C3AI (AI-NYSE). I bought it in December at $10.50. It's up another $2 per share today at $22.

I spent a lot of years in the commodity brokerage business and as an individual trader of equities. Best advice I can give you is to buy when no one else wants to and sell when everyone wants it. Hard not to follow the crowd but if you have the fortitude it will pay big dividends. Seems to me the boat has already sailed with Transocean.

Because no one ever lost money in commodities, Fox.



PS: I think you meant AR.


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Strangle is placed. Should net me a pair of Pirelli Road Grabbers.

Read where deepwater drilling is coming on strong again. Old rigs are coming out of storage.
OTOH the push into shallow water continues, and the Arabs have purchased nearly all the available jackups. Daily rates for both have increased dramatically.

To quote a Southern colloquialism, Stan, "I done already did that." They sound great but I'm afraid they're a panacea:

JR

No doubt many investors are better advised to keep their funds securely in insured holdings. To suggest, however, that all investors follow such a policy, no doubt can be misplaced. Probably in its most simplistic form, if you ever think of anyone that has accumulated serious levels of assets and has achieved what any of you might describe as "significant wealth," the question can easily be asked, "How did they accomplish such? Did they get there by loaning their funds and collecting rent (interest) on it, or did they own something? In general, I think that we would acknowledge that most large asset accumulations came from some sort of long-term equity ownership. Of course not every investor has the temperament or ability to most efficiently do this in a comfortable risk profile relative to their needs, but the long-term performance of equities vs. debt is so overwhelmingly distorted in favor of the former that many investors carefully explore ways to consider it.

An interesting aside, relative to the the stock position I mentioned earlier that was my December 2022 selection for my year-end investment that would benefit from excessive tax loss selling, the position somewhat has a double gun related association. About 8 or 9 years ago I was hunting for a couple of days at an interesting plantation near Thomasville, GA. The plantation was sort of a "membership" plantation where about 15 guys from around the country would pay about $150,000/year to have unlimited access to what was essentially a Ritz Carlton in the quail woods. It was a pretty exclusive group with a few notable CEOs from coast to coast in the membership. I was fortunate to get to go there as a guest on several occasions. Anyway, one the guys that was very involved with the place had enjoyed much of his career at Oracle. While there, he came up with a technological advancement that he wanted Oracle to pursue, but they decided not to. As a result, the guy left Oracle and started his own company, which he later built and sold for many billions of dollars. It was after all of this that he flew to Thomasville after he was leaving the SCI Convention in Reno for a few days of hunting, but along with him, he brought Stefano Pedretti, one of the world's best engravers, who he had just commissioned to engrave an entire flight of new Piotti shotguns. Anyway, I had a good conversation with the accomplished entrepreneur, particularly about why he had decided on an Italian maker vs an English one. All that said, I started following his next business pursuits.
A couple of years ago another hot stock was on the market in another new area of technology--artificial intelligence. I guess I should not have been surprised when I realized that the guy that I visited with those years before near Thomasville was the founder of this new and highly anticipated venture. It was called C3.ai The company came public and subsequently soared to excessive heights and valuations, all based upon potential, an equity driver that can often lead to disappointing, or at a minimum, unpredictable results. Over the next 2 years the stock became one of the classic examples an oversold year-end tax loss purchase candidate that I explained earlier. As mentioned, I took advantage of it in a very modest fashion and am now pleasantly enjoying a positive market correction in that company that truly is a direct benefit from a good time in quail country....