Although I don't profess to be an expert, here are my credentials - take them for what you wish:
B.S. Degree in Zoology 1978
Two years with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service on the Upper Mississippi Wildlife Refuge and yes I worked with waterfowl, non-waterfowl species, Bald Eagles and upland birds.
-30 years of working in the water and wastewater treatment field as a technical specialist - and yes I have spent many, many hours working with lead contaminated water and sludge. I have worked on many lead removal projects from such waste streams as lead battery production facilities.
Here is what I know as fact.
Lead CAN be very toxic to birds and mammals. It is not always toxic, but it is sometimes toxic under certain circumstances. Lead is amphoteric, meaning it dissolves in both low pH and high environments. It is when it dissolves and ionizes that it becomes a toxicity problem. Lead pellets consumed by birds and mammals that quickly pass the pellets in their stool will most likely not have a problem unless they consume them on a regular basis. In a mammal, the acidic fluids in the digestive track will dissolve a small amount of lead each time one is ingested. Prolonged expossure to even small amounts of lead in the digestive system result in lead poisoning. That is why lead paint was such a problem with small children that chewed on lead painted toys and woodwork. In waterfowl and some upland game birds, the pellets end up in the gizzard where they stay for long periods of time where they are slowly dissolved causing lead poisoning and death. Lead shot with a protective oxide coating still dissolves in a low pH or high condition. And yes I have handled many live and dead waterfowl that had lead poisoning.
Now here my opinion - not fact on this issue.
Perhaps some people here feel it is there God given right to shoot whatever type of shot they want to. Perhaps they haven't seen, studied or understand the long term implications of something like this. There are some people that will contradict whatever scientific study is presented and some that are just paranoid and feel the government is always out to get them. I on the otherhand am willing to make sure that my children and my children's children do not have to clean up my messes. Because the vast majority of the studies indicate there CAN be a significant problem, I am willing to miss a few more birds and clay targets using non-tox shot. If it becomes too expensive to shoot - I will stop shooting because I value the resource more than I value shooting. And yes - I have hunted all types of game birds and big game for over 40 years. Remember the argument is not lead shot or nothing - it's lead shot or non-tox shot.