I think there'll be a solution for non-tox in vintage guns. But, I don't think it'll be cheap. Non-tox requirements may make "shooter grade" guns somewhat less marketable, but the "non-shooter collectables" will probably not take a hit.

Just like the current gas prices, if there is an alternative that is developed, there is no reason for the suppliers of that alternative to price there wares much below the only other alternative. If the fuel cost of pushing a 5000lb pickup down the road is 25 cents a mile today, alternative fuel to push it a mile will be "competitively priced". Likewise, if another non-tox shot comes down the road, it'll be priced like other recent equivalents.