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Post deleted by Jagermeister

Well Guys,

As expected the "Generals" defended the .382 retracement level on the SnP finally sparking the begining of "the bounce" that will determine the course of trading for the rest of this year.

If, as is anticipated, this bounce is nothing more than a bear market rally it will be clearly obvious as the market internals will not confirm the advance and the Market will do little more than bounce up into resistance while working off its current extremely oversold situation...

Where does this bounce go....Easy, first stop is right back up to the .382 retracement of this selloff at 1380 on the SnP.

JRH

Don't get fooled by this bear market rally.Once the volume drops off and it will we will be back on the down elevator.More writedowns a to come and the bond insurers are still not bailed out,the only reason we bounced up to day was the rumor that one might.

Charts are nice but the ocean floor is full of ships with charts on them too.

Sell into any rally and save your capitol,it will all be cheaper in the next 6 months

LOL....and the ocean is filled with with even more unimaginable yachts owned by succcesful traders that owe every dollar they made to being able to read charts.

..Let's face it 99.9% of the world can never be succesful at it..that is why the .1% that can gets paid so well.

JC

TA (reading charts) is only usefull to confirm FA (Fundies)
Don't be let the tail wag the dog or you will be one of the 99.9 that only follow the charts and wishing they where on those ships at the bottom of the ocean !

Yesterday rally had nothing to do with "generals" defending any SNP level it was the "hope" that the NY regulators could raise enough capitol to keep te bond insurers solvent,MBIA and ABK,if they lose their rating its look out below and we go down another 2000.

LOL,

Believe that one...and the buyers that scooped all of the stock at firesale prices...as determined by the technical level on the charts set many months ago.....will gladly continue to sell off all that stock to you up 5% from where they bought it...as they are doing all day long today!!

JRH

Dave,

Perhaps you can also explain to everyone here how the market supposedly began to rally off news that had not even occured yet? The market made its reversal around 12:45 EST yesterday confirming the lows...however the news about the NY regulator talks never even hit the wires untill after 2:00!!....

Now, of course the first thing a "Fundy" will do to explain this fact away is to say that the news was leaked prematurely...Not the case...all one has do is to look at the names you mentioned, (pmi, mbi etc), they saw absolutely no involvement in the reversal of the indexes that occured at 1:00 when AAPL, GOOG and the QQQQ's all hit their lows and reversed....In other words...the market had already completed its reversal hours before any supposed "fundie" regulator news had the tape.

(I should know...I posted the following at 1:05pm on another forum yesterday..."Covered every remaining hedge here" (where I was then in a leveraged long position)...and the SnP had just reversed at 127....Two and a half hours later at 3:34 I wrote..."I am agressively rehedging everything here with the knowledge we close even high and continue to rally tommorow" when the SnP was trading above 133 on the SnP...4.5% higher!!....and I never even heard about the "Regulator" news until reading about it last night after the market closed....LOL


JRH

Not to harp on this fact....However, for those members that are not closed minded on this subject and want to know more Here is more info displaying the FACT that yesterday's reversal was a coordinated event based on specific technical paramaters...

Here is a statement made by the Former head of Fidelity Capital Markets...after the close on 1/15/2007 when the SnP was still trading above 1380, (and at that point new lows for the year)

"While the rallies in this bear market will be sharp, the odds favor a decline to at least the .382 retracement zone at 1268 (1576-769), which is -19.5% from the 1576 high."

Eight days later...the SnP bottomed at exactly 1268.4 ...before rallying to close over 5% higher above 1340!!

The only closed minded one is the one who lets charts tell him the market direction without reguard to the most important triggers to market moves.Fundamentals! You sound like one who has drank the koolaid and will pay the price like all the others that follow that route.
Market turn yesterday was in fact a direct response to the proposed bailout of MBIA and Ambac nothing to do with your "generals".Just because you did not know the news till after the market closed does not mean those that make their living in this marker did not.
"The markets staged an impressive rally on news that the New York regulators and banks met to discuss plans for raising new capital for the bond insurers. The news catapulted the markets upwards and sent bond insurers MBIA (MBIA) and Ambac (ABK) up 32.56% and 71.89% respectively"
http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm


"News of the meeting helped spur a rally in U.S. stocks, which slid Jan. 18 after Fitch lowered the rating of Ambac. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index halted a five-day slide, rising 2.1 percent to 1,338.60 after losing as much as 3 percent earlier."
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aneyXTf8spRI&refer=home

and one more anyone foolish enough to throw real money into a bear market rally.

http://www.seekingalpha.com/article/61441-jeremy-grantham-credit-crisis-will-last-until-2010

sell into any rally as the volume drops,buy gold and preserve capitol untill better buying opps come along.

good luck with the charts ,blinders and ear plugs but you better have something to fall back on when your technical tools fail as they ALWAYS do.

"Many believe too strongly in the infallibility of their tools or systems. There is no tool or system that can accurately forecast every market top or bottom and there never has been"http://www.marketowl.com/2007/06/14/technical-analysis-is-useful-but-it-also-has-many-flaws/

Let me ask you Dave...Not to be too personal...but...How long in your life have you proffesionally managed money???

JRH