Something else we haven't considered: The feds can mandate nontox on waterfowl because they control waterfowl hunting regs, waterfowl being migratory. They can't mandate nontox for upland birds, because the states are in control of the regs. The only way the feds could play in banning lead shot would be as part of a much broader ban on the use of lead across the entire spectrum, like something coming out of the EPA. And under such a ban, lead shot would comprise but a tiny percentage of materials covered.
And if some states start banning lead, we can vote with our feet. If MN bans lead, come hunt pheasants in IA, or go to the Dakotas. Go to WI for grouse. Don't buy a hunting license. Wouldn't take long for state DNR's to get the message. And states like SD, where hunting is big business, would probably welcome all the refugees.