My question is "Assuming a total ban on lead projectiles, ten years later, how could we possibly know the difference?"
The pro-banners have no answer to that, because they can't - because they haven't - currently demonstrate any harm to human health or any decline in the species they claim are being affected.
Has anything as massive as the lead ban - impacting millions, in this generation and successive ones, and costing billions - ever been done on such slender evidence.
Perhaps you recall the ban on fluorocarbons due to the hole in the ozone layer? An entire generation of them were fazed out over the hand wringing wet pants brigade, who, were duped by the people who held the soon to be expired patents for the manufacture of same. They went on to produce less efficient versions with brand, spanking, new patents, that monopolized production of same.
Nobody was ever able to prove that R11, or R12 behaved any different in the atmosphere than R22 and 134a that came along later.
But, the patent holders have made plenty of money off of both of them.
Best,
Ted
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If you follow the money, you will always end up right over the target.