doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com Tariff amount

I like GRIP6 belts and socks.


_____________________________
Let them eat gophers! Ol’ Joe Stalin

It would take a measure of honesty to admit that the S&P 500 is now higher than it was during the March-April correction that was triggered by the imposition of Trump's tariffs. And the Dow Jone Industrial Average is very close to where it was then. But I've learned to never expect to see honesty from you CZ.


eeb is 100% correct. The 20% decrease you tout now is past history. The market correction was long overdue, and the very temporary drop provided a buying opportunity for astute investors. Precious metals remain much higher than they were under Biden because metals investors understand how Democrats destroyed the dollar via inflation. Essentially, the value of precious metals is the same... but the dollar is worth much less. Another inflationary spiral with Democrats running things. Once again they screwed the people they claim to represent. And many of those people are stupid enough to believe them.

Unfortunately, the March-April correction also provided yet another opportunity for dishonest Democrats like you to twist facts and to post lies. Liberal Democrats like you and DimmyW were crowing about a short term loss on paper that has since been reversed for the vast majority. You lying turds even made the false claim that it was the worst stock market correction since the Great Depression.

If it wasn't for lies and deceit, the Democrat Party would have nothing at all. But fools like you, DimmyW, Princess SKB Stevie, the Nutty Professor, et al, will continue to die on that deceptive hill, and continue to support the Party of Socialism, Open Borders, Lawfare, Political Persecution, False Narratives, Fake News, high taxes, fraud-waste-and-abuse in government, perverted LGBTQ behaviors, defense of pedophiles, and Transgender grooming of children, etc. It is why many life-long Democrats are finally wising up and walking away:

https://www.walkawaycampaign.com

I think in the long run it will be good for the US. Sure we are going to pay more but hopefully we can get more things made in the US and put more folks to work.

As far as guns go it will probably be more of a problem for buyers looking to buy foreign budget guns.


JOhn
Arrieta
Quality Arms

Princess Karen,
You will have to figure out the answers to those questions on your own, I refuse to roll in the mud with a pig like you.

All my best,
Steve

I won’t do the math for you kieth.

It’s called “Sequence of returns risk”.

Feb, Mar, Apr, May, and June, represent months where (depending on which date you choose for your personal retirement acct withdrawal) a person’s withdrawals have considerably heavier effect, AND, by late April there would be considerably less to recover with. So their account would still be far lower than it would have been without the tariff issue.

I’ve listened to it for the last four months at the gun club where I actually shoot old guns at clay targets. Most of the guys whine, [censored - come on man!], and quit spending, praying for some relief from it all, hoping prices don’t careen out of control.

Since it was a self induced correction, and alternatives to the way it was introduced exist, with possibly less effect, I view it as an unforced error of trillions of dollars.

But I got a new Audi Q7 out of it, so I’ve been compensated for it.

I just googled that. Crikey. I thought Ted had shyte taste in cars.


_____________________________________
Those aren’t the ones that accelerate wildly are they?
I can just see you Jack Klompus’ing that behemoth into Lake Huron.

Their accounts started going far lower 4 1/2 years ago. Inflation, under the last administration, ran far, far higher than they would admit to.

Inflation robs you at both ends.

Were the gun club guys bltching then?

A side note, in spite of every single financial guesser over the years trying to sell me a Roth IRA, I refused them, out of hand. With a government that spent more than it should for decades at a time, I figured why the hell would I give them taxes on retirement funds that were worth a bunch more, now, than what the money would be worth to me when they inevitably had to inflate the accumulated government debt away? If the money is worthless in the future, that is exactly what I want to pay them with.

YMMV, but, I doubt it.

Even the whores at Wiki can’t get around the fact that the “crash” lasted but 8 days.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash

Best,
Ted

___________________________________________________________________________________________________
‘Gonna cost a million to put tires on Lonny’s Cub pretty soon. Might make it worth $100-$200 if he does that.

Geez Ted, why not go back 16 years so you could include the Kenyan?

Reality is, a guy retired pre-social security age with a 1 mil portfolio Feb 1st, that takes his monthly withdrawal of an annual 4% to cover his household, is still out more than 50k to date.

That’s 15 months of monthly withdrawals at the common 4% withdrawal rate gone in days.

As far as inflation, of course they do. I think it’s what old guys do.

Inflation hurts retirees the most.

Can you share a source for this? What I'm seeing is, at best, weak promises to hold prices for a few months or the remainder of 2025. (Auto example below, at bottom)

For the last 10 years of my career (I retired 2 years ago), I led teams of analysts optimizing pricing. For both a $80Bil retailer and a $15Bil manufacturer. Both companies sold in excess of 40,000 unique items in a given year and varied prices across markets to be competitive and harvest profits. We changed, on average, over 500,000 prices a year, using data science to maximize profits and gain the most margin without customers switching to other sources. Whenever commodity prices increased for a category, or tariffs increased, we raised prices. Some of these waves included price decreases, but the net impact always passed the costs along in total for our company and preserved margin rates. All before those higher costs even showed up in our P&L as cost of goods. We passed it along. If demand significantly tanked for an important item, and it was clearly due to price, we'd take prices down. But then, if it was an important item, we were always watching our competitors and increased as soon as they did.

I can guarantee that US publicly traded companies are passing those tariffs along, simply because their stocks get pummeled if their margin rates slip. The increase may be spread out over a few months or quarters, but it will happen. From a personal perspective -- in each of the companies I worked for, both the pricing team and their business partners who owned the product P&Ls, were bonused on delivering a margin, and that was expressed as a %rate and margin$. And these goals didn't change when commodities or tariffs spiked. You had to figure it out, and passing along the higher costs as higher prices was the default assumption. I can recall multiple directives from the CEO and CFO to pass along cost increases, but not a single instance of 'eating it.'

So a 10% tariff rate increase means a price increase in the short term. Maybe a product or supplier switch in the long run. And Trump's actions may work out in the long run, by increasing our exports and domestic manufacturing base. Big question is the level of economic uncertainty between now and then.

Automotive impacts (a timeline of manufacturer/industry news since this started): https://www.autotrader.com/tariffs?...sv36DTJpLUaAmWKEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

Lastly, below is a simple example of a 10% tariff, driving a 10% product cost, and actually increasing $ of margin (profit) per unit sold. Meaning we could make more $profit without selling any extra units.

I also suspect leveling the playing field from a tariff perspective will help the US in the long run. And I agree w/ your comment about the affordability of foreign budget guns. I'm worried about this actually creating good jobs.

Today unemployment is 4%. Slightly above last year. But still very low compared to my lifetime. Our economy is the biggest and best in the world. We achieved that without a level playing field because we're blessed with immense natural resources, a highly educated workforce, a decent legal system and a couple of oceans to watch our back.

My concern is that even if this policy change increases domestic manufacturing, will those jobs pay enough to afford a house for your family and a decent life? Manufacturing job incomes haven't increased. Their productivity has, but the wealth created by that is going to the shareholders and the executive team. Not the guy making stuff. He's hoping to keep up with inflation. Treading water. Meanwhile his parents and his house are getting older and demanding more of his time and money. I don't see how tariffs dramatically increase the demand for skilled US manufacturing jobs such that wages grow enough to make these jobs a viable entry point into the middle class, without a spouse also working.