You have asked a complex question.
You can look at the spread of the disease without politics.
The disease doesnt care about politics.

Try looking at it through the mechanism of spread.

International airports. Check.
Big city, high density living. Check.
Lots of poor people. Check
Large cadre of people with pre existing health issues. Check
Limited healthcare access due to poverty. Check

Where are those places and people?

Out there doing it best I can.