doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com OT: At the risk of stepping in it....

I've tried to get a question answered lately that for some reason, the usual on-line sources of information seem unable to accommodate. The are some pretty accomplished folks here, and some with strong medical backgrounds. I suspect that this will devolve into the usual mess eventually but....here goes. From my reading on the subject, at least in the United States... the death rate from this COVID 19 infection is about 1 death in 10,000 infections. Somebody asked me today if that 1 in 10K death rate was enough to justify calling this a pandemic. I simply didn't know, so I attempted to look it up. From what I was able to find, the death rate isn't the determining factor of how a pandemic is defined, it is the infection rate and then the geographic areas involved. Assuming that's accurate, then this is indeed a pandemic. It is most certainly a pandemic when you consider the death rate in other countries which do not have the level of care that we do here. The next question I was asked was about the dramatic differences between death numbers in blue states and red states, ie...why is Florida so comparatively low and New York so high? I have been told that almost every death in the blue states has been counted as Covid-related because there is a financial incentive to-do-so for the hospitals involved. I could not find any information to help me with that one online either, can anybody here shed some light on the subject with some, hopefully, first-hand knowledge of the subject?

Lloyd, my DIL is a RN in an Augusta hospital. She has stated all along that this is terribly overblown. In the hospital in which she works every person who dies there is tested for COVID 19 post-mortum. If the virus is found in the cadaver the death is reported as a Coronavirus death. Why? $$$$$$$$

For every death to Coronavirus reported the hospital receives extra dollars. Don't know how much, but she did say that for every patient with COVID 19 that is placed on a ventilator the hospital is paid $39,000.

Do I believe the deaths from CV 19 are overstated. Absolutely, without question. Follow the $$$$$$$.

SRH

You have asked a complex question.
You can look at the spread of the disease without politics.
The disease doesnt care about politics.

Try looking at it through the mechanism of spread.

International airports. Check.
Big city, high density living. Check.
Lots of poor people. Check
Large cadre of people with pre existing health issues. Check
Limited healthcare access due to poverty. Check

Where are those places and people?

Strangely the death of a colleague's parent who had CV19 was recorded as something else (heart related I believe).

Place of death, NYC. In my opinion, the claims of over stating CV19 death rates are patently false.

Currently, the death rate in the USA is roughly 82,000/1400000 which is a shade less than 6%. A far cry from your 0.01%.

In NYC, it is believed that there are more deaths from CV19 than recorded. This belief is based on deaths from all causes in the same period of time in prior years compared with deaths during March and April of this year. Take note of the "excess death" graphs illustrating deaths from all causes and the spikes above the past years.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

real science is saying 1.3,but hey that doesn't fit the talking points.

It's not what the numbers say. I've been tracking it for a while now.

Here in Iows 271/12393 = 2.2%

Your denominator is known cases. what about the unknown cases? Have you accounted for that in your numbers?

Brent: that is the case fatality rate, not the overall death rate. And it varies enormously, obviously by age and underlying risk factors, but also by environment (NYC) and genetics (esp. Native Americans and Latinos) Things are very bad on the Navajo Nation.

We know very little about the epidemiology of COVID right now, but certainly will in about a year. And since we know so little, none of us here can really contribute much but hearsay, agenda driven "news", conspiracy theories, and personal opinions. So I'll decline. I do believe the health professionals advising President Trump are trying to do the right thing, with limited information and wildly different models.

I'm betting on sunshine and heat, and praying AZ and our nation open up soon, and that the economy bounces back quickly. Clearly folks are already emerging in Phoenix - Home Depot was packed last week when I was there. I'm afraid though, just like 9-11, we are in for a new and challenging "normal".

Gentlemen, thank you all! I know that depending on whom you determine to be a credible source for news, your relevant data and then opinions will vary. The mainstream media has never been held to account (at least not yet!) for some clearly questionable reporting on this matter (and so-many others) so I'm never quite sure about what I'm hearing or reading anymore.

So...we have a range of opinions here concerning the death rate, from 1 % to 6%, largely depending on who's death data you believe to be accurate. It would seem to me that politics is the primary driving force here, as it is everywhere else these days. Everybody seems to have an axe to grind on this one.

Here in the Texas Panhandle the cases continue to increase. We have several meat packing plants that are a magnet for the virus. Currently the death rate is 1.3% but climbing. Now that the state has partially opened for business I see a large number of people going about life as though nothing has happened. Few masks, less social distancing, and larger groups together. IMO the infection rate is going to increase rapidly now. On the flip side we must reopen the economy ASAP or will find ourselves in a financial hole we can never climb out of. Damned if you do, damned if you don�t!

I know this, at my age of 78 and with mild heart disease we are going to continue with our limited self quarantining. Let the youngsters build the herd immunity.....at their own peril but respect our need to avoid contact.

Well said Joe.
There is a big difference in the "numbers' for upper age groups. And it is one thing each can affect.

It�s easy to find credible information that suggests the infection rate is understated and the death rate is overstated. Very easy.

When it�s all said and done we will have a death rate under .5% and the vast majority will be over 60 with pre existing conditions.

Just as it was for the pandemic of 1958 and the pandemic of 1968 when over a million people died each time.

The big difference today is two fold. We start with a virus that spreads faster that our medical experts are used to, so they are unusually alarmed. And we have a pervasive, alarmist media who have been pounding the table for 40 years that nothing is too great a sacrifice if it saves just one life.

What follows is a clusterf**k of misinformation and misrepresentation. Hidden in all the crap is the real info but it�s hard to discern.

Once you plant your flag, it�s hard to climb down the hill.

NYT published CDC numbers that said just the opposite for the 4 weeks from mid March to mid April.

Numbers have to be quantified. "Death rate" can be stated as being number of deaths per number tested as positive, or it can be stated as number of deaths per total population. Obviously, BrentD is talking about the former, not the latter, as there are estimated to be over 330,149,000 people in the USA. Death rate in our total population would be 82,000 divided by 330,149,000, or .000248.

Watch the scales on the graphs they show. Bar graphs can be manipulated to be misleading, if you don't look closely at the scales.

SRH

I can only give the U.K. perspective here but will come in anyway. Seasonal influenza annually accounts for around 10,000 deaths here per year. That is despite the fact that flu vaccine is free to anyone over 65 or who have certain illnesses such as diabetes and also to children as they are considered as 'super spreaders' (snotty nosed little beggars in other words). Anyone else can have the injection for around �10. Currently Covid deaths are around 32,000 here so only about three times as high with no vaccine yet available.

Dark skinned minority groups are significantly more vulnerable; and we have a high population that fall into this category. Now, I have a theory; well a couple really. Dark skin is a product of evolving in lower latitudes to prevent over exposure to Ultra Violet light. UV light is necessary in order for the body to produce Vitamin D which boosts the immune system. Hence higher latitude people have lighter skins in order to be able to assimilate the UV light to make Vitamin D. Not good for dark skin therefore in high latitudes.

Theory two. Northern Europeans interbred with the Neanderthal races that had happily evolved there for some considerable time. Northern Europeans have; I believe, something like 2 to 4 per cent Neanderthal DNA. This might just give an edge. Interesting the comment about the vulnerability of Native Americans as of course they never encountered Neanderthals.

Well, you read it here first folks! Not exactly scientific as I am just a simple country lad but I would be very interested if these two factors are not further examined. Lagopus�..

There are 22 residents of a local nursing home that have tested positive. None are seriously ill, and these are supposed to be the most vulnerable of our population. Facts like this just don't add up to the numbers of deaths reported to be a direct result of CV19.

If it smells bad, and flies are buzzing 'round it, it probably is.

SRH

I place 100% of the blame in NY on the governor�s door step. Few know he made an executive order early in this out break that forced nursing homes to accept Civid19 positive patients as they were discharged from hospitals. In effect he was forcing nursing homes to accept some of the sickest people and integrate them into a population that was at the highest risk without regard to their ability to isolate them from the general population. This was a direct cause of thousands of deaths. Thousands. If Trump had ordered this the outrage from the press would be devastating. But there is none in the MSM. Go figure.

By the way if you wonder where I got my information from it is directly from my sister in law who is a Dr at a hospital in NYC. She watched hundreds of patients being discharged and sent to four different area nursing homes. Not surprising all four were hot spots. Hundreds died. The Governor thought was to keep beds open in Hospitals even if his actions opened up beds even in nursing homes because of deaths in them. He just rescinded his directive this week.

Canvasback: I don't know if it's that easy to arrive at your conclusion (because of the bewildering amounts of conflicting data being spewed by the political pundits and their sycophantic media), but it does seem to me that many more people have already had this infection and gotten over it without much inconvenience. Current testing result trends seem to confirm this. Without more hard data that is difficult to prove, however. "Testing and tracing!" seems to be the war-cry of the folks on the left these days and they seem to use it in order to justify the continuing shut-down of the economy. I suspect their motives....

We (the United States) clearly had to close our borders (at first for flights from China, and then later from Europe) and shut-down our country because we simply didn't know what we were up against (thank the ChiComs for that one!). We clearly didn't want to become the tragedy that was Italy in February/March. We seem to know a lot more about the infection now and it also seems clear (at least to me) that we must get on with it here or we'll do irreparable damage to our country. I have been told that the median age for fatalities from this infection is eighty (80), I have also heard (from a credible source) that almost half of the recorded deaths have come from nursing homes. Given that, I know that I'm more than willing to climb back on a plane and go back to work, (even though I'm now at an age were I am at some increased risk). I don't mind being asked to wear a mask and to be socially distant, and I will comply...but I deeply resent being told to do so by petty tyrants. How this will all play out is hard to predict.

Lloyd3, It sounds as if you're willing to observe reasonable precautions if a Republican leader asked you to. Otherwise it would be an unacceptable order from a petty tyrant. The general sense I get now is that premature opening is asking for another big hit. I agree, of course, that economic damage can be as deadly in the long run.

Lloyd, because it hit my close family early and because of the time on lockdown and being semi retired anyway, I have been looking hard at it every day since my son left for a tour of Europe on March 3.

An extraordinary amount of press, often conflicting, pulled and pushed by partisan influences and objectives. The info is there. You just have to use common sense and identify and reject partisan posturing.

So for example you can look at CZ's early post of how and where it will spread quickly and see that while those places in the US tend to vote Democrat, it is not Democrat policies that cause it to spread. That is a general statement. That then has to be balanced against the news breaking in the last 10 days about Cuomo sending patients into old folks homes.

My point is the info is surfacing. Not easily digested but it's easily found. Just needs work once you get it.

Canada's federal and provincial governments are likely spending in excess of $300 billion dollars that they don't have. All deficit spending they will have to borrow for. We have 5000 dead from it, 78% in old age homes. Almost all have co-morbidities. And we know the official death rate is exaggerated. Currently as of May 11, that's an average of $60 million per death.

Please tell me the lock down makes sense. I don't see it.

Lloyd, the "petty tyrants don't bother me. I'm just pleased those who know more than I about about public health are calling the shots---as it should be. We know next to nothing about Cov19. Nothing is safe or certain, and never is.

I have confidence in our public services and political direction under varying national circumstances, and believe we're on the right course considering scarce empirical evidence. Following the rules is not an onerous duty of citizenship.

What's a premature opening?

Which guidelines for incremental reopening, specifically, are more reckless than than visiting a grocery store? It can be said that ny elderly were 'discharged' from hospitals, but wasn't the petty tyrant's policy that the nursing homes could not ask any indicated covid questions, nor could they get access to normally available medical records. Social justice or a petty tyrant showing the party, because it was an opportunity, the possibilities of rationing and prioritizing life, when it wasn't necessary. Weird, huh?

Management is making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Why public and private managers are paid more. Some countries didn't know what to do about a new and deadly virus and dithered, others acted with hitherto draconian measures.

The consensus generally was to lockdown and now opening economies carefully, another conscious gamble with uncertainty involving serious consequences. Lockdown itself was to protect the integrity of healthcare infrastructures from disastrous breakdown.

We're learning on the job, James. Muddling through, serving humanity, people before profits, as we should. As for the cost, Canada is good for it. Commoners will pay most of it but have you seen cost of those shares lately? Loads of money floating around. Our latest billionaire worth more than RBC.

I live in Merced County, California and I've noticed some interesting things. Merced Co. population is 255,000 + and is basically rural, it has reported 173 covid19 cases with 3 deaths, one stat you don't usually see is recovered cases, we have 99. 98 are 18-49, 40 are 50-64, 25 are 65+, 10 are <18. What really jumps out is that the Hispanic population is 41% and Hispanic cases are 65%. This probably has more to do with behavioral traits than race, I've noticed in grocery stores that very few are wearing masks and tend to be in family groups, also they seem to be more social than other racial groups, this is also true of the 18-49 group. The area is opened up the last week because the local politicians threatened to defy the lock down order from the state along with the other rural counties. politically the governor tends to favor the urban parts of the state. Interesting that the worst area apart from LA and SF bay area are Kern CO. and Imperial Co. which have very high Hispanic Populations.

A premature opening. to me, is a political decision contrary to the advice and counsel of the public and private health services mandated to protect and promote the quality of our lives.

Behavioural more than racial: I've seen evidence of it here and overseas. Won't mention names or places but those behavioural traits attract me to where I want to go, a natural tenderness and shared empathy that seems to be disappearing,

Current stats from Wisconsin: 418 deaths out of 10,681 verified positive cases. State population is roughly 6 million.

But like many parts of the country, there are very significant disparities within a state. In WI, Brown County (Green Bay) has the highest RATE of infection: 754 per 100,000 population. (Mostly due to an outbreak at a meat packing plant.) Milwaukee County has far more cases and deaths, but a much larger population. Rate of infection is 426/100K.

But everywhere north of Green Bay, the rate of infection and deaths are both very low. My county has 7 positive cases, no deaths. Our rate of infection is about 20/100K, and that's pretty much the way it is all across the northern half of the state.

Good news is that we've been breaking clays at a couple places, and one more (located on DNR property) will be opening (with restrictions, like all of them) next weekend.

I think this is true.

You guys are taking all the fun out of this disease.

It's very contagious.

So, if you live in the sticks, and take minimal precautions, you likely won't get it.

You live in a hi-rise?
Better be careful for a while yet.

Someone invites you to a party? Politely decline.

Or, if you are under 55 and in good health, ignore the whole thing, perhaps get it and get immunity.

It doesn't happen in a vacuum.
Pre-symptomatic people spread it.
Some healthy people, and young people, have died from it.

It really isn't a completely individual choice.

I've had pneumonia.
No thanks.

I'm easing back into things in a couple weeks.
I wanted 2 weeks of no flare ups before I showed back up at work.

I get it that not everyone can be so laissez-faire.

CZ, some young and healthy people die from the annual influenza. But we don't stop life for that. Statistically speaking, based on the incomplete data of who has contacted it and who has died from it the official numbers for under 18 are 0 out of 100,000.

As I suggested in my first post, it was the fact that pre (and non) symptomatic people spread it that caused the panic in the health care community.

There is credible data out there that is suggesting that the actual infections are at least double the known case count and could be as high as 10x.

Mr. Brown:

As a son of Canada, perhaps your tolerance of "petty tyrants" is more fully developed than mine. Americans in general and this American in particular have very little patience for such people. To a fault, I am genetically ingrained to almost-rabidly resent and resist such people. My family and ancestors have been involved in the fight against the forces of tyranny since the very beginnings of the history of this country. My earliest-known ancestor arrived here in the 1630s and... it is not going to be on my watch that those precious freedoms and liberties, that I have known and enjoyed (wallowed-in, actually!) throughout my life, would be surrendered without a fight-to-the-death if necessary. I consider these things to be my most crucial, critical, and ultimate birthright, and I suspect that I am not alone in that deeply-held commitment.

I am happy that you can so-easily trust the "experts" that help guide and control your populace. Many (if not most) of the experts here in this country seem to be badly compromised for a number of reasons, and their "highly educated" advice often conflicts with many of my deeply-held values. I am immediately suspicious of any edict that attempts to curtail any of those hard-won freedoms, such as I am now with these "lockdowns". I am fervently hopeful that how all the people currently in power (state governers mostly) react to these challenges are long-remembered.

Yup, I thought this was an infectious disease concern, not opportunities for bureaucrats that're "experts" on quality of life.

This will do wonders for medicare costs for the next ten years. the NY metro area includes parts of NJ and Connecticut. Think what you want.

It could easily become a fatal misunderstanding to entertain the belief that this virus can be compared to the annual flu.

People are free to believe what they want, and act accordingly.

With that, I'm done.

Lloyd, from the evidence of their efforts to find solutions since it started, I am confident that none of our political leaders would risk the consequences of putting the gross national product ahead of the quality of Canadian life.

I appreciate American concerns for their unprecedented---chaotic is not too strong a word---erosion of representation. Our system allows popular will to change governments when they don't have the Commons' confidence.

Canadians don't have conversations about special privilege at the top, executive authority and the federal governor being above the law. Getting the sobs out of there is as simple as a writ, most powerful influence in a democracy.

Mr. Brown: If that is so, then a "writ" should be a simple solution for lots of your problems up there. Sadly, I must confess serious ignorance about the subtleties of Canadian governance. It has taken me most of my adult life to even begin to grasp the, indeed, chaotic components of our own democratic republic.

CZ: I'm grateful for your input here and I certainly don't want anybody to have such a potentially fatal misunderstanding. There are more than enough reasons to be cautious about this bedamnedable virus.

The worst (& perhaps best?) part of this whole process it that it has acted to "tip the hand" of so-many politicians as to what their true beliefs and values are, and for some (many?) of us it's painful to watch and then live through it.

+1

That is one excellent post, with which I whole-heartedly agree.

SRH