doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com Does the gun market now mirror the stock market?

Or maybe yesterday's real estate market. I was at the old gun shop today and they had a late thirties/early forties L.C. 12ga Field Grade FW in abt 90pct condition. Asking price $1850. Good Gawd I coulda picked that up five years ago for $750. Have I missed something sitting here on the sidelines the last few years? Are prices going up 20% a year? An L.C. 20ga in 99% condition that I bought 5 years ago for $1700 is now selling for $2500. What is your measurement of the market appreciation?

Since no one else wants to touch this I will offer my $.02 worth. It is maxed out just like houses. I am the average joe and the prices are at an all time high. Sell it now before we pull out of Iraq. Just have that feeling. I just surfed a popular for sale site. I did not see any bargains.If they are selling who the heck has that much extra cash ? I sure don't. A year ago we had 100 houses on the market. Now we have 1200 with more foreclosures every day. It's bound to happen. I'm sitting tight saving for a specific gun at a special price.It's going to have to be a good deal or no deal.Then again some people here have some pretty deep pockets. More power to them.

I agree with the real estate analogy. Home prices in Phoenix increased 50% spring 04' to spring 06' but have now fallen (though not everywhere in the valley) about 5% and homes are taking much longer to sell. There is no doubt an 'irrational exuberance' hit the small bore market the last 2 yrs, especially with Fox and 16s approaching 20g prices, but also Ithaca NIDs and LCs. They are, however, building new homes but not more classic American SxSs (excepting CSMC.) :rolleyes:
Just can't see much of a price correction coming, but also doubt if there will be much appreciation coming either.

I have been looking at one gun on a dealers web site for three plus years. His price was way too high when first listed but is almost market price today. A second dealer has had one gun on his sight for over five years. His prices in now only 1.5X market price, not the original 2.5X market price when listed. Still the same price, but the market has caught up with their inflated prices. Point is that over priced guns are hard to sell but the price will be correct in the long run.

What I do not undersdtand is why dealers are willing to tie up money in inventory for years when they know that it will never sell at their prices. Do they just like having it in their store for years on end?

KY Jon,

"Well...this'ere widdow lady came in with this nice gun, and I asked her what she wanted for it, and she said "I don't know"...".

"So I offer her a hunnert bucks, and she just stands there and sorta starts ta shake, see. I figure 'Oh Hell, she's mad and I'm really gonna catch it now, for gettin' caught trying to cheat her'. But, she finally manages to stammer out, 'THAT MUCH?!!'. [laughter]"

True Toledo, Ohio gunshop story; and that may well be why a gun can afford to hang around in inventory for so long. In this case it was merely a Colt's Revolving rifle which her ancestor had brought back from the Civil War.

Of course, most people ARE decent -- a lot more decent than the above piratical fellow whose escapede was witnessed. The same guy once offered me a 'rare' rusty Mauser 98 bbl'd action, in exchange for a commercially finished 8.15x46R WW1 NCO's Gewher 98 target rifle.

However, a more realistic answer might be speculated at for your question, in that perhaps the dealer views the piece as a 'stock and bond investment' and is just waiting for it to mature? ;~`)

Might be a consignment, with 0 of the dealers dollars into it.
Best,
Ted

How many hunters and shooters born after 1980, give a crap about a doublegun ? Or will even be able to own firearms or a place to shoot nad hunt ? Demographics will kill the current price I suspect.

I asked and it's not consignment. Maybe in other parts of the U.S. you see more doubles but here in WA I don't see that many and I'm a member of the Washington Arms Collectors. I'll go a year or two before finding an original american vintage double in VG to Ex cond. Maybe the supply/demand equation is different here than elsewhere.

I found someone selling a whole bunch of Indonesian Krises in an internet auction. These are squiggly bladed daggers found in the mainland Pacific cultures and nearby island nations even into the Philippine region and sometimnes southweastern India.

Their blades are typically made of alloys of meteor iron, nickle alloys, low carbon iron, etc. They have striking patterns and swirls which have been developed and named over the centuries. The wooden sheaths, and metallic coverings, and other predictable knife/sword components are all named, detailed, and variable from historical period to period.

Ordinary items of this sort six or more years ago brought a good price. The groups which I bought into had six items whose owner listed a good period history and presumed century of origin. Some of this stuff went back to design forms of the twelfth century and others up through the 16th-17th. The non-blade components were relatively newer but the ivory handles were darkened with age.

For whatever reason these went, in my case, from $49 to maybe $86. My best guess was most of the bidders were little old lady antique dealers. I noted to the dealer who was selling this collection for someone that this stuff was going for nothing. He said that in the last six years there was a dedcline in the market for collectibles.

Due to the resistant strengths of the metals used in these blades the routine ritual chemical washings kept them rust free - and nickle and meteor iron isn't exactly going to turn to powder even in a wet climate. Those blades which are ritually maintained are quite thin and this is one way to gauge their age.

There are trends in markets for these items and sometimes an adjacent market will take away customners. Islamic weapons have thewir followers and in the last couple years many more decent quality blades from India appeared on the market as well as some Turkish items. Thus a young Islamic emmigrant in America might buy a traditional item in one sphere and abandon a market in another Islamic blade area. Overall time and economic factors affect a weapons market as well. We might expect the very best items to have a market among those to whom money is no issue though they may be wary of exceptional price increases.

If there is a desire to own an interesting gun there are many good new items offered on the double market, particularly as shown in the current Shooting Sportsman.

On the other hand one might take the low road and have a Baikal engraved, which is what I am doing now, and said gun will later have the re-cut straight stock properly refinished by somneone who knows the work. Thus, make your own custom gun from raw material and he happy until a good old original comes into view. There is cheap satisfaction in the short run and denial of gratification will likely pay off in the future for the patient.

Postoak,

You are wrong. The desire to own a double is age related not related to when you were born. Just wait until these post 1980 people start hitting 50 nad their interest will start to grow. This is the same effect that hits females and their interest in antiques starts to increase about the same time. This was pointed out to me by a fairly well to do gunshop dealer whose wife owns an antique shop. The more I watch life the more I think he is right.