Keith, I am not in the Atlantic flyway.
I am on the eastern edge of the Mississippi.
I am also active in flyway management. I go to the CWAC meetings Citizens wildlife advisory committee, and follow the discussion at our flyway council meetings.

It's very likely the producer states and provinces in that flyway had poor production and downstream counts are dropping.
Also, as I manage about 20 wood duck boxes, whatever quantity of woodies aggregate further south from here, their recovery is entirely due to sportsmen.

Sportsmen that chose to grudgingly protect the resource when it was almost gone.

People that see migratory waterfowl at their terminus don't always have a clear picture of what the flyway is experiencing upstream. A terrible (INO) management example, is the special consideration AR and LA are given because of the economic effect duck hunting has there.

Out there doing it best I can.