Fascinating discussion.

A quick read of Dr Andrew Jones' on shotgun ballistics simplifies matters. He proves that shotgun patterns are subject to the laws of normal distribution, that roughly 60 per cent of shot will be in the central third of the pattern no matter what choke or load is used, square or other. Tighter chokes give tighter overall patterns but the distribution is constant.

The bottom line is if you want to hit, better put the center of the pattern on target and practicing hitting is more important than load dimensions.