I think we're actually coming into a great time to acquire collectible guns, because Baby Boomers are starting to pass away, and clearly not all those guns will get passed down. There are less and less gun owners to pass down to!
It doesn't necessarily mean their graded guns are going to sell at cheaper prices...but at least it should mean more guns just AVAILABLE to be bid for.
In this sense I think the only market that's likely to finally be in trouble is the lower end of famous makers. Sterlingworths, VHE's, L.C. Smith Field grades...these guns have all benefited from the same consumer impulse that drives people to buy a Mercedes C class (or a Cadillac Cimerron!). People like to chase the great names, so they chase a dollar price, and the inventory availability, of that name they want. And it's been like this for a long time. But I wonder if Boomer guns coming to market will let the air out of the lower grade guns, because there will be a greater inventory of 'better' guns available to chase.
And I'm talking about 'collectible guns,' not 'shooters.' People tend not to overpay for the shooters. It's that 1st or 2nd time buyer collector, though, who I think drives the price of nicer condition low grade guns. ** BTW, I was one of these...my first purchase was an excellent original condition LC Smith field grade 12 ga 28" gun. She was a beauty, and I paid the high end of any I had watched sell before. And I was ok with that...until I bought Stubbendieck's book and realized they made 200,000 of them! So I sold it for what I paid, and started to be more patient, and more discerning.**
Oh btw, I literally cannot remember the last time I saw someone with a lever gun at my range, nor do I know a single hunter who uses one. So I wonder if the same logic applies to these as well. Sure, that Kornbrath engraved Winchester is always going to be bid for...but the base ones that have had more different guys leave their marks on them than Pam Anderson...? I wonder.
-- Nudge
