Dr. Jones' analysis has two big unknowns - aiming error and %probability of single pellet strike clay target breaks. Not intending to be pedantic, but 100% minus the probability of a break is the probability of a non-break. We know that differing zones of the clay react differently to a pellet strike. We can surmise that differing sequences of the timing of pellet strikes will influence multi-pellet breaks/non-breaks. Little we know, much we don't.
Aiming error of zero would allow an infinite run of broken targets using a .22 rifle. An aiming error of two feet would result in precious few broken clays and mostly single pellet strikes at that.
Jones has given us a great start in understanding patterns and clay breaks. IMO, the method is the biggest gift of all. He has set a benchmark for scientific data.
DDA
