Don, it seems that this is where experience clashes with analysis. Since we know--from experience--that it's not unusual for single pellet hits to result in unbroken targets, that makes it harder for experienced skeet shooters to accept that single pellet breaks are very common.
Larry, note that this is not the first time a theory and experience have clashed. We also know from experience that it is not unusual to see a target break into 2,3, or 4 pieces. After looking at Dr Jones's work on single pellet breaks, I feel comfortable identifying these as single pellet breaks. Somebody needs to clear the target shards out of the landing zone of a skeet field, have a squad of average shooters shoot a round with single hits counted and missed targets recovered immediately for hit inspection, and report the number of unbroken targets with one hit and the number of hits identified as one pellet. That will give us a start to the truth. I think at this point in time most experience is based on the assumption that all breaks are the result of more than one hit. All you skeet shooters out there, next time you are out, look at the 4 piece or less breaks as single pellet hits and see what % you come up with.
DDA