I'll stick with the same ones, Don. First, you didn't quote the part of my post where I pointed out that we can't know how many single pellet hits don't result in a break because some of those will indeed break when they hit the ground. The point, therefore: Since we know that it's not at all unusual to find unbroken targets with a single hole (more unusual, but not really rare, to find them with two holes) and since we also know we're not finding all the unscored hits because some break from ground contact, that means the number of unscored hits is even greater than we can prove by collecting targets. Which means it's even less likely that Dr. Jones' contention that single pellet hits that score are the rule rather than the exception (going from memory, I think he puts even more emphasis than that on single pellet breaks) is indeed open to question.
And doesn't Dr. Jones state that shooters, because of the nature of patterns as he's observed and researched them, have to rely on a certain number of single pellet breaks? If so, then certainly when you end up with 100 (or more) straights at skeet or trap, that score would have to include a number (but we don't know how many) of single pellet breaks. And indeed, if you got a single pellet break 100 times in a row, you'd have a score of 100. However, by the time we add together all the holed but unbroken targets we can pick up, together with all the holed but unbroken targets that shatter when they hit the ground, I think we can agree that it's HIGHLY unlikely that 100 single pellet strikes in a row would result in 100 breaks. Too much observable evidence to the contrary to support the likelihood of that. Of course you can also pick a winning Powerball ticket . . . but at very great odds.
Because it's not at all unusual to find unbroken targets with a hole or two, what we do know is that any model that suggests single pellet breaks figure prominently in one's score at any clay target game is definitely open to question. What Dr. Jones needs to do is to find himself a skeet range (unbroken targets generally falling within two fairly restricted areas, one from each house) and place some sort of soft covering on the ground to prevent contact breaks. Then he needs to collect the unbroken targets--probably after every round, because they can also break if they fall on another unbroken target--and examine them for holes. That, at least, would give him some idea of how many misses aren't really misses at all, but rather unscored hits.
Last edited by L. Brown; 12/02/12 11:25 AM.
