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Originally Posted By: Nitrah
you are certainly wrong re the # of govt employees being the same over many years. There are far more state and fed workers now than 30 years ago. Just the enforcement of Obama care will add even more.


You're right - the TOTAL number of all gov't employees is higher now than it was 30 years ago.

My point was that I thought the percent relative to the total US population was not much different. I do not think the number of employees per million population has changed much. Admittedly I am relying on memory and haven't looked it up. Am I wrong about that?

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Originally Posted By: Gnomon

....I also suspect that there won't be a "burden of higher overhead" but rather a lowering of cost - if everyone is insured then the risk is distributed and individual premiums go down - this is why I had long hoped for a single-payer method. That's the ideal thing to promote small business - even Mom & Pop stores could afford to hire someone if they were all covered by some basic insurance....

....Ryan made a very important point - when Obamacare cuts in he can afford to go "independent contractor" route. Many people will be able to do that....
....most people will still want to increase their incomes. Only rarely do people turn down the opportunity to earn more money....

....I don't think of being able to buy health insurance as an entitlement but I suppose others might. The two big beneficiaries of this cumbersome Obamacare are the private insurance companies and the public....

...Sorry- I rambled.


Where to start. No big deal G. It's a very simple matter to look up self employment taxes, medicare taxes and scheduled rate increases for 2013. It will be more expensive for an employer to hire someone, and if you check, an individual will be required to pay both the employee and employer portion. Just one small part of coming 'taxes'.

Your blanket spread the risk theory doesn't mention the track record of the entity that is administering the health plan. There are specific dollar amount 'taxes' that increase over the next four years on the entire 'middle class', who ever that has yet to be determined may be. If you have some sort of health plan you would know that premiums are increasing and under the new law projected to mushroom.

No one said your personal purchase decisions are an entitlement. You may be disappointed to discover that you 'cadillac' health plan, meaning private, is scheduled for a forty percent tax. Drop in the bucket because you're rich, or are you prepared to stand in line with the peasants on principal. So, how again does private insurance benefit by your hoped for single payer method.

Your original example was of a hard working responsible go getter. Wouldn't that person factor in healthcare for themselves and their families, or just assume it'll be cover by the government. Isn't that the entitlement mentality.

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It will be just another bureaucracy and about as worthless as the existing ones. Hopefully we'll get rid of the Kenyan and regain control of the Senate in November. If that happens the whole Obamacare fiasco can be repealed.
Jim


The 2nd Amendment IS an unalienable right.
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Just wondering how many in this discussion are eligible for and turned down medicare?

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Anybody who is working on a W-2 basis is paying for MediCare out of every pay check. Many of those who work for companies with group health benefits will find that they are precluded from simply continuing on the group plan if they continue working beyond age 65. Why? Because the group plans often have provisions that require participants to elect MediCare as their primary coverage once they become eligible for MediCare. Some are forced into MediCare because of these provisions, even if they can elect the group plan as secondary. In addition, it is virtually impossible for any individual who is age 65 to purchase an individual policy (except for a HIPAA policy) because of the medical underwriting requirements of the insurance companies. Most companies have tightened their underwriting criteria since ObamaCare came on the scene, because they don't want to take on any risks now that they don't absolutely have to. So, once you turn 65, you probably don't have any choice other than to sign up for MediCare.

MediCare is not an entitlement program. It is a plan that you pay for while you are working (1.45% of your gross income, plus another 1.45% contributed by your employer), and that you continue to pay for once you begin active participation, through monthly premiums. Obama's plan will double your Medicare participant premiums by 2014. May not look like a tax, but is has the same net effect.

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Isn't five hundred billion dollars being cut from medicare under the obamacare plan.

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Quote:
Isn't five hundred billion dollars being cut from medicare under the obamacare plan.


The numbers are squishy, but premiums are going up and benefits are going down. Double whammy for those over 65. OMG.

The actuaries will tell you that the gov't will probably still need to raise the age for future MediCare participation, just as they did for Social Security participation. Both programs are not sustainable under the current formulae and demographic trends.

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Originally Posted By: Gnomon
PM - my age is showing! By "young" I meant in his 40s.

Everything you say about his business is true, except that you assume he's done none of it. He has been in biz some 20 years and isn't the kid next door with a borrowed lawn mower. In short, he's been running a real business for a long time. Why assume he's operating out of his house? The guy has several trucks and trailers for his equipment and operates out of a commercial building. He used to have 2 guys working for him but the labor market got very tight and they got poached.

And the guy's rates are not for the faint of heart! By the way, he's fully insured - his mower once threw a stone through a picture window and it was fully covered by his insurance company.

Obamacare may, as Ryan pointed out, may make it possible for some people to go the independent contractor route and my "young" landscape guy might get workers that way.


Something about your landscaper story does not make sense. Why isn't he competitive in the labor market after 20 years in business? If he had two employees he must have had at least 120 man hours of work per week to keep them and himself busy. How is he completing that work by himself? and if not how is he carrying his overhead? With unemployment at 9% has he advertised for help? No one will work because they don't like his healthcare plan? How much does he charge?

You don't need Government intrusive healthcare to become an independent contractor, never have. Healthcare can be bought now on your dime and your dime only. Ryan pointed out he was going to game the system and feed at the trough at others expense.

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craig all your comments are interesting and certainly discussable. I only take issue with:

"So, how again does private insurance benefit by your hoped for single payer method. "

A single payer method is the most efficient way to buy medical care. We are unlikely ever to get it and our national per-capita health expenditures are likely to remain among the highest int he world. Under Obamacare private insurance companies will benefit (by "Private" I mean non-gov't corporations that sell insurance, not the insurance that they sell). Under single-payer they would not make as much money even tough they would be able to sell any supplemental plans they want, as they can do in Britain, for example.

Also, Medicare is run very efficiently. Social Security is very efficient also. The overheads are actually very low.

Thanks for you input- gotta run - got a meeting.

P.S. Glad to know I'm rich!

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Quote:
Healthcare can be bought now on your dime and your dime only.


Let's not confuse "healthcare" with "health insurance." Sure, anyone with the money can go to the doc or the hospital as a private pay patient, and the providers absolutely love those folks. But if you actually try to purchase an individual health insurance policy, you are likely to be very disappointed. The insurance companies are not accepting any risks, and the only way you can get underwritten is to be young and in PERFECT health. Underwriting has gotten much tighter since Obama got his plan passed, because the insurers will be forced to take all risks come 2014. So, they are now taking no risks, to maximize their short term profitability between now and 2014.

And, going the independent contractor route may sound easy. It's only easy if you don't get caught. The IRS has pretty specific guidelines about who qualifies as an IC rather than as a statutory employee. Most people working as IC's do not meet the IRS guidelines, and the penalties if you get caught fall on both the IC/employee and the employer. You can expect the IRS to step up enforcement come 2014, because they want as much of your money as they can get, and they know violations will become more common as Obamacare phases in and as the economy improves.

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