You can probably expect it to go up- mainly because of the price of lead shot. In the past 6 months around here it has gone from about $18.95 to around $25-26.00+ for 25 pounds. So this is probably what he is talking about. Now as far as going from $5.00 to $10.00 for a box of shells, I kind of doubt it. But you should expect some increase. It sure won't get any cheaper. Better stock up if you do a lot of shooting/reloading. Good luck.