Lagopus, the south never had a chance from the start. But it certainly didn't appear plain to them in the early phases. They were sparsely populated and had little manufacturing ability. To them the war was an "all or nothing" affair. They also lacked a general consensus among the population for support of the war. In the beginning it does seem people rallied to defend their soverign state's rights. But as the rebellion devolved into a question of slavery the support seems to have become somewhat confused. And each state, proud of its soverignity, was slow to fully engage itself for the entire confederacy. At the same time, the northern states had a vast excess of manufacturing and agriculture. During all those years it never had to go into full wartime production, but the war was more of a major diversion. Overall, popular support for the goals continued more or less. Just consider this one illustration: during the war the north was able to begin constructing the transcontinental railroad (1863), which required huge quanities of iron and other materials and contributed nothing to the war effort. The south couldn't even repair their own rails!
The whole sad affair reminds me of a beggar playing poker with a billionaire without table limits.
