Rather than try to adumbrate,foresee, surmise, anticipate, augur, conjecture, foretell, infer, portend, presage, presume, divine, envision, forecast, prognosticate, prophesy, vaticinate or hazard a guess about the price of shot by watching the lead commodity price.....

I'll look at gas prices (it's climbing 15 cents/gal per week) and talk to my ammo supplier. He says he has to charge $.50/bag more today than the last shipment and the next will be another $.50-75 more. The chicken entrails tell me it's time to make another big (for me) buy tomorrow. I rode the last roller coaster and I've yet to pay more than $23/bag.