doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com Prices

Ed, re your response #5 above, my point is that many lenders (especially CW and IM) did not give a rip about the quality of the loan once they had made it. They got their fees on the front end, sold the loan, then continued to gather in loan sevrvicing fees for the life of the loan, with no real risk after they sold the loan. They were incented to make as many loans as possible because the servicing fees became their annuity income. In a big operation, the revenue from servicing fees can exceed the revenue from the lending side.

Soooooo, are the gun prices going to come down? My guess is new guns won't be affected much, but used guns will take a hit or not sell.

The news story tellers are reporting increased gun sales (new I presume).

Some interesting comment in this thread.
Current economic woes must have an impact on gun prices because sensible people will be looking at ways to increase their pension funds and cash for retirement. No point in buying a nice gun if you cannot afford to shoot it.

My forecast - In the “new gun” market orders for high-end guns will fade, as the usual buyers – investment bankers and their like – will not have bonuses to spend. New middle-tier guns will sell more slowly, as buyers will find it difficult to justify that level of expenditure. New lower tier guns will sell, because people like to shoot and will buy basic guns.

The used gun market also will take a hit; top end guns will sit there unless the prices fall substantially and vendors take a drop, particularly those who are forced to sell. Middle tier values will do the same, but will be less affected as owners will hold them rather than trade up, also because more people can afford a middle than top tier gun. Bottom tier guns will trade more briskly as reduced disposable income will increase demand at the lower end.

In the UK driven shoots will also suffer as corporate days disappear - Stg£30 -40 a bird on corporate entertainment would be hard to justify to shareholders when dividends are not being paid.

K.

I think that says it all right there.

Absolutely, Dave. I'm still waiting to see someone around here charge $700.00 for a tow charge. But, before people run down the gun companies for their profits, they need to remember that factories pay electric bills, oil bills, unions, etc. There have always been top brass pocketing big bucks- that's the American way. I just retired from a steel mill a few years ago. You don't have to tell me about the people who lay around and won't work for their money. And as far as home loans are concerned, people should have had enough sense not to get in too deep. The rule of thumb back in the seventies was- the bank wouldn't give you a loan (in this area) if the monthly payment was larger than ONE WEEK'S income. That means that if you and your wife work, your house payment shouldn't be larger than what you both bring home in ONE WEEK. If only the man works, the monthly payment shouldn't be larger than one of his paychecks. You mention that to a real estate agent now days and they never heard of such a thing. That's why people go under.

Jimmy W. I am a realtor, that is one of the ways we qualify a buyer. Actually banks use 28% of your monthly gross and as much as 33% if everything is correct with your credit scores. But, buyers have become much different than back in the '70's. They now tell us what they are going to do. Because of the internet and lending institutions, that use telemarketing, they have many times taken our job of helping them get a loan, out of the loop. New loans though, have not "really" been the problem. It is the refinance loans that have done the damage. Because we were seeing a trend of 3-5% yearly increase in house values, the refi. companies have been over appraising. Example: You live in a house that has an actual resale value of $100K, they would send out an appraiser that would give it a $130K value, so they could loan you more money. After all, they are going to be making money on the interest they charge and in a few years, the value "will" be there. Is it right? NO, but that is what was done. I have had many customers burned by this and of course they come to me to get them out of the pickle they got themselves into. The customer didn't ask the realtor for this advice, they did this on their own. Everyone knows, I can't sell your $100K home, for $130K. Besides, the ultimate appraiser, is the buyer. A fair market appraisal is based on what the market has shown in the past 6mos. Any earlier than that and you will see different values. Now in this unstable market, even 6 mos. is too long of a time to base appraisals on.

That's not really what I was getting at, but certainly related. I just think that the original statement is exactly what leads to overseas production, lower quality standards, etc. It's natural and it's a logical choice.
"Prices" will never drop unless it's a temporary liquidatin situation, but the product that's the "same" will be moved to a different production point, different materials, different lean manufacturing techniques, etc will be put in place and the result is that an 870 today isn't the same as an 870 from 25 years ago...neither are your sneakers. Companies in many markets, not just guns, etc, have been seeing increased manufacturing costs, increased raw materials costs, increased overhead, etc for a long time, and frankly I have not seen prices in general increase much at all over the past few years...my suspicion is that most companies DESPERATELY need to hold or even increase their prices in order to survive because they've been dealing with a market that does not value (or has forgotten or never knew it?) quality as much as it once did, and HAS choices at lower prices, so they have been struggling to keep their prices as low as possible in order to meet the market demand.
So, the answer is, I do not expect to see prices drop at all on guns currently on the market. I might expect to see new or subtlely modified guns that cut some (further) corners or new/old guns manufactured in new and cheaper areas, etc that address a demand for lower price-points.

I was talking about what GregSy said, David. And Dave, I know what you mean. I worked in a steel mill for thirty years and made pretty good money. But I saw kids get a job there and start buying things that put got them into trouble. Realtors (mainly, a couple of women I dated over the years) around here never heard of such a thing of not getting a loan that would put a huge burden on young kids. I remember in the spring of 2006, we were in the process of getting locked out by our company (AK Steel) and one guy I worked with went out, within a year of the lockout, and bought a new car for his wife, a new pickup truck for himself, a new boat (a month before the lockout) after he had just bought a new home. All this on less than a $50,000/year job. Credit cards really get people into trouble, too.

You know, they are all screaming at the housing industry, but all loans are the cause of the problem. They will grill and drill you to get a house loan, but get a loan for a car or truck, all you have to do is be warm. Why, just an opinion. You can reposes the vehicle, then take it to a car auction where it can be sold. The house is where it is. If it is in a bad market or a bad location, that house is going to take a big hit on value. You can't buy a car or truck before buying the house without screwing up your loan application. But buy a house, no problem, they will get you a loan for that vehicle.

Someone should take those two "schmucks with earlaps already" outside for a good old "Bosephus- Attitude Adjustment-and get their sorry Bernie Baruch asses in tune with the program. Their BS ads are all over Gun Digest like a cheap suit on a laid-off pimp-what a travesty- like the numbnutz in PA who advertises "because I am a dealer, I can pay more"-how many really "with the program" gun buyers, collectors, shooters do these peckerwoods think they will rope in-? Dicky and Graigsey had listed a Win M54 .270 SuperGrade mfg. 1933-Just for the Hell of it, I called, asked for the serial number, with my Schwing pocket Winnie guidebook open to the M54 section- Old pencildick, or was it pencilgraig- read off the number-book showed 1931-BUT Winchester did not bring out the Supergrade for the M54 until late 1935 (Roger Rule's book) and then carried it over with the far better M70-Went to a MI gunshow a few years ago, pal wanted a SuperGrade M70 even more than Monica Lewinski wanted a Lavoris dispenser and some Dixie Cups in the Oval Office "Rest-Room"- we found a nice 1954 .270- Supergrade stock, solid red pad with the two "titty plugs" SuperGrade QD's, black tip-20 LPI checkering, but that varied as did the comb styles from 1935 until Winchester dropped the SuperGrade in 1960. I had my Rule book on the M70 (worth every penny too) and the script and dashes on the floorplate looked more like a 1940's SuperGrade style-and floorplates were interchangable-also no "engine turned bolt" as the later SuperGrades usually had- so we asked the dealer to remove the three through bolts so we could look at the barrel underside- caliber, date stamp, inspectors marks and on ALL original SuperGrades- in larger case SUPER-he declined, and we saved our $- Caveat Emperor- and as for Dick and Craig and their crooked ilk- "You and the horses you rode into town on---"!!