doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com deflation and doubles?

How would a period of deflation ,in theory, affect the prices of new imported and used in country firearms?
Does a bubble abound?


Bill

Deflation would be pretty rough on discretionary purchases such as sporting firearms. It would be characterized by a attitude of "cash is king" and an expectation that most products would be cheaper in the future so, in general, potential buyers delay their purchases. It's a spiral with destructive consequences--as sales slow sellers begin offering lower prices and that actually encourages sales to slow even more and price reductions to increase. Not a pretty situation for anyone--let's hope and pray it doesn't happen.

My understanding from past reading, and I can't provide a source at this time, is that high end guns like doubles were showing up for sale at incredibly low prices at gun clubs during our last depression in the 30s. If we should have another depression I can't imagine the situation being much different.
Jim

I can't imagine why anyone would worry about deflation, depression, or hyperinflation with Obama in charge.

it's buyers market out there now. sellers are still dreaming at sites like guns international.

New Manufactured guns within our boundaries slowly decrease in cost. The market determines if they decrease in price. Qty's available decrease as well. Interest rates decline, and capital flows to more productive endeavors. The urge to hoard cash. or defer spending by consumers grinds the economy down to a very slow rate of production. Remember, Retail sales lag manufacture.

Guns for import become much more expensive because of the weak dollar. With the attendent low interest rates seen in deflationary times, the dollar weakens vis other currencies. Makes imports cost more. Keeps them out of our marketplace.

With respect to non gun dealers, not much happens. We don't need to own our firearms. While they are an asset, they are un essential, so, historically, people just hold on to hard assets, unless they need cash for something. None of us want to sell at a loss. So, we wait (hoard). Adding to the deflation, or at least the length of time before prices rise again.
We are'nt like farmers who can end up land rich, with no crop worth raising to sell. Leaving them with no cash to live on.

Deflation is already happening in used guns.

Just take a look through the online listings for Cabela's & Griffin & Howe.

Lots of price drops.

CSMC has been flogging the same high-end stuff for a long time. Doesn't look like much is moving.

Have heard that other dealers are very open to offers on their guns.

OWD

Buy vintage

No question that the market for more common doubles, such as Birmy boxlocks, is very soft. Fortunately most of us did not buy them for investment purposes. If history is any guide it could easily take a decade or more before the economy encourages such discretionary spending again.