An overlooked factor seems to be the California Effect. With over 38 million people, this gawdawful state represents more than 10% of the country's population, and that is a huge section of the market. The state gummint has done everything it can think of to make buying guns and ammo as difficult as possible, not just with the paperwork but also with increased costs. Many shops and FFLs either won't do interstate transfers at all, or they price the service so that it makes no economic sense for the buyer to bring in a low to mid-range gun. Buying a parts gun is almost out of the question because it can easily cost $200 in fees to bring in $150 worth of parts. The state's ban on lead ammo for all hunting statewide (fully effective 7/1/19, I think) is making many older and small bore guns essentially useless for hunting in this state. And forget about ordering specialty ammo from RST or Polywad or anyone else, because the state has banned internet ammo sales effective 1/1/18. Local dealers don't stock about half of the factory ammo I use, and what they do stock is grossly overpriced compared to online stuff. And after January 1 it will be illegal to bring in more than 50 rounds from out of state. Load your own? I'm not going to load steel .410s for doves with my full choke Model 42. So the old guns are getting less and less use, and my two recent purchases are Winchester Black Shadow gas semi-autos in 12 and 20, because they will take any ammo I feed them. We are screwed, and I suspect that is affecting the market for doubles.
