doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com The U.S. economy and gun values

The last economic 'slowdown' we had a few yrs back, guns dropped significantly. But, so far, I haven't seen any sign that gun values are weakening. Lead/lag effect?

Shooters...80-85% guns will probably not drop in value much but will take longer to sell. A slower economy does not impact on the collector market...they will continue to go up in price. A lot of "deep pockets" out there. Supply and demand. JMHO Rick

I am waiting for a drop in price in graded Ithacas. They just keep going up.

Like the big SUVs and pickem-ups have, some guns will lose in their value. Good guns/rifles will always be wanted - American and Brit mostly. Look for the Euros(stepchild of the gun world) to take the biggest hit in resale and trade.
Even in the good dollar times, these were passed over for the others.

I'm not seeing any slowdown south of the equator - even with interest rates approaching 10% for the average home owner, and inflation rearing it's ugly head etc. The fine, vintage collectible end of the market seems to be immune. I'm seeing vintage brit doubles of high grade and high condition quietly going for multiples of Rocketman's tabulated estimates; we used to be cheaply plundered of such guns by intrepid North American buyers hunting widely for bargains.
RG

I have seen a drop off in people with money to spend. Not an outright recession but more like a slowdown in elective spending by a lot of my peers and neighbors. Housing values have dropped 20+% and are still in slow free fall. People in the real estate market tell me that we are near the bottom but they said the same thing a year ago and 10% ago. I suspect that another 5% will be at the bottom price wise. Those who bought and refinanced until the owed 100% of the old value are screwed until they either build up enough equity to sell and break even or they had better have a big checkbook to payoff the old mortgage if they are force to sell sooner.

Guns are not going to collapse in value anytime soon. You will see trade values drop first and retail prices slow or drop later. But to be honest if a dealer can afford to hold onto the gun, until they sell it, it is in their interest to do so until they get their price. After all they are not making anymore 50-100 year old high condition guns anymore. I think we will see $25.00 lead before we will see 1K small bore high condition Fox guns again.

The average or may I say run of the mill guns may suffer. The top grade original stuff will not miss a beat.

I don't know. Check out the big $$$ guns that have just come on the market at Lewis Drake's:

http://www.Drake.net

I think prices are going to go down on all stuff - even the high-end stuff.

There was an article in NYTs last week about how the even rich people are being forced to cut back.

I agree...if Osama Obama gets elected the bottom is going to fall out of the whole country....and good ol'George Bush will get the blame.

Gas is over $4 a gallon, diesel over $5, Ed McMahon made a living out of giving away millions and now is losing his house, Evander Holyfield is losing his mansion, and America is about to elect to the Presidency a man that has sworn to stand with the muslims, spend more on social services, and will likely prevent future oil exploration on U.S. soil. I need a drink! Hell, the country needs a drink. And I bet donuts to dollars that in 1 yrs time, a $4.5k Parker Repro won't bring as much.

Please...the last time a Democrat ran things the economy was booming, the $ was strong, oil prices were low, and we had zero debt.

Now we're in a war we had no business starting (and the pres mislead us into), buried in debt, inflation is booming, gas prices are crazy, the dollar is falling, and we still haven't caught Osama Bin Laden (remember him?).

We need another Democrat to fix things after Bush pt. 2 screwed them all up - just like his pa.

Hahaha

OWD

I hate to hear that about Evander....things haven't went well for him since the Tyson fight. The democrats should've ran Evander I might've voted for him...at least I know he's an American.

No American in their right mind could ever vote for Obama...I bet the reverend Wright doesn't even vote for the Northern Muslim Baptist.

Blah, blah, blah, Homeless. You're just jealous.

Hahaha

Say hello to the future - it's Obama. When America sees him on TV against McCain, it's going to be Nixon vs. Kennedy all over again. "Who's the 'friggin geezer" they're going to say.

And what about that cook McCain had backing him - John Hagee?

President Obama and the Democrats to the rescue.

OWD

Operation Wetback would be a start if anyone wants to lookup what was done by IKE in the 1950's. He enforced the law. If anyone had the guts to do so today, the press and the Democratic and most of the Republican party would go nuts. Gutless wonders argue about how many ways they can make life more "fair" for those who "have not". Real leaders find out why others "have not". Men with guts tell people to get off their asses and get a job, stop thinking that casinos will balance the state budgets and that lottos will make them rich. Make something and sell it, instead of looking to the government to provide for your future.

Chuck, I agree many overpriced guns will drop in price if times get tight. After all, as many here are fond of pointing out, gun value is what a seller and buyer agree on, not some number that others set. If a man has guns that cost him 50K and he needs 35K to keep his house then I suspect the guns will suffer a 30% drop in price, if he can find a buyer with money. Real men do what they have to do to keep their families safe and housed. Not wait for some economic stimulus package from the government that will be paid by our grandchildren.

"Please...the last time a Democrat ran things the economy was booming, the $ was strong, oil prices were low, and we had zero debt."

True enough but the last President who operated in true Democratic fashion was Jimmy Carter..........high gas prices, high unemployment and 21% interest rates on borrowed money and an American embassy taken over and diplomats held captive for nearly a year and half with little show or force to stop it.

and btw we had a national debt, but did have a couple of years without a budget deficit which was engineered by Newt Gingrich and his Contract with America.

Oh ya the two Democrats before him go us deeply involved in slightly unpopular war in Vietnam that resulted in over 55K U.S deaths.

It couldn't have been a democrat....

Chuck, I think the used market for decent doubles will do OK, but I do wonder about all the folks making expensive 1911s and AR-15s. I believe they will have a hard time. I think the latest Ohio version of Ithaca will have a hard time.

Let's see if Galazan issues another RBL or weathers the downturn by sticking with the high-end work. I bet the latter.


OWD, Don't count your chickens....

...Reminds me of a certain NE Patriots fan before the Superbowl.

American can get by with a bad first term only Prez, but it'll be the second term that really gets you! May I offer-up collecting salt n pepper shakers in that case!
Not much difference to the metal compactor - hi-grade or not in a second term of leveling the American playing field to African standards.
You'll think your standing on the corner of the third world - but that will be your street.

What's that Merle Haggard song, "The best of the free times are behind us now, but are the good times really over for good"

America is at the mercy of the New World Order's guillotine.
Welcome to the dark ages. It'll have to be up to you ol'beans - do you, or do you not put your head in it?
Stand and be counted, or you'll be handed your head.

I rarely agree politically with friend Treblig, but I'm with him and Merle.

I think this downturn has more to do with India and China's success than our failure. The decades of buying our cheap cheap (cheap offshore labor, cheap goods at Walmart and everywhere) funded their success. As those countries bootstrap themselves; they compete for resources and upscale their manufacturing to compete in high tech...Gah! and services too (bastages!).

As India and China increase their costs for grunt work, we globally go to Africa for the next couple decade's grunt work. Call Centers are in Ghana and Keyna now. Could this global need for grunt work finally lift Africa into the developed world - and create more competition.

[TotalBS]
Maybe in 30 years the US returns to agriculture and really becomes the world's breadbasket.
[/TotalBS]

Post deleted by Run With The Fox

Before this turns into the usual catalog of doom past and present, have several question. How many of you would expect the "bottom end" (4-7C) to realize roughly a 40+% increase in value over the past 4/5 yrs? If you suspect this to be the case, would such an increase be due to the racetrack of inflation or to the mechanism of internet selling or both? How do sale by local advertising or shop consignment cf.? Are there categories of field-grade guns of absolutely no collector interest which, given just the right amount of aging and less than the right amount of "mileage", do very well in the utilitarian market if you can "extract" them from the "local ore"? Right now I'm thinking of imports such as the Beretta S or BL-guns and the 70s and 80s Uggies. Are there others in your experience? What are they? No need to answer; trying to make the point that by volume of interest and resale, these are the halcyon days of this hobby.

jack

Just came back from EU and looked at their gas prices. I don't see why most Americans are bitching about high cost of fuel. I simply don't get it.

Another good reason I'm not driving the family to Europe for summer vacation.

I have never seen the prices of guns go down. They have gone up for the last 45 years as far as I can see. If you lost money on guns then you are buying the wrong kind of guns. Or, they aren't original enough that people will buy them. Or, they are just a cheap piece of junk. I have never lost money on a Model 12 or 21, Python, (or Colt of any kind), Superposed, S&W or Ruger or any gun I invested in. And I don't ever expect to lose money on them. Guns have never done anything but increase in value. So, if you lost money on a gun over the years, you really did something wrong. Or you are one who laughed at the other ones when they invested in those "butt ugly guns". So, now who's having the last laugh?

PJ, most do not travel out of the states. I paid roughly $13/gallon last year in Norway on many fill ups.

Benny

Jager, you don't get why Americans are bitching about fuel prices, really? Our fuel prices have more than doubled in a short time span where as in Europe, etc... these prices have been high for some time. Are we just suppose to to adapt now because that is how it is somewhere else??? Plus why is it so high somewhere else. YOU should be bitching.

Treblig you Sir and in good company here quoting Ol' Merle- met him backstage about 3-4 years ago- he had a concert venue and a friend got us backstage passes- my pal is a huge fan of "The Okie from Muskogee" and loves his song "Big City"- so do the Coehn Bros.- in their movie "Fargo" when the "Howdy Doody" corrupt car salesman from Twin Cities walks into the country bar in Fargo- Merle's self same song is playing in the background- good choice--

Post deleted by Run With The Fox

As always smart investors will pick up pieces. Especially high quality, when the economy is slow and or the dollar week because holding will hedge. But we all know that. The key I believe is to buy high quality and rare pieces. Stay away from the middle goop. Good guns will surface now, but they will be bought up almost as fast.

I don't know........I just sold a nice Purdey that I just had never fallen in love with to a major sporting goods retailer and made out very well over the five or six years that I had it. They plan to make good money as well. If they sell it for anywhere near what they've got it priced they will too. We're not talking the highest of the high here but its still several tens of thousands of dollars that are involved. I think my experience speaks of a good higher end gun market right now.

I agree:
Vintagers.
Internet auctions.
Burgeoning "analogue" auctions.
The Double Gun and Single Shot Journal.

Spend 2000-4000 for an ugly, mass produced new gun and watch it depreciate, or spend that (or more) on a finely hand built vintage double and watch it appreciate and gain a great deal more pleasure from using it.
RG

Gas prices have never gone up. Actually they have gone down. Back when gas was twenty-five cents a gallon and jumped to twenty eight cents we were really in a panic. We were only making fifty cents an hour. Back then you could buy a $150,000 home (at todays prices) for $9,000. But a school teacher only made $1,200.00 a year. Now around here they make $50-60,000 a year. Twinkies were .08 cents when they came out but it would take a month to save up that much when we were kids. Now, how many spoiled kids have to have a cell phone to send text messages (when 150 year old morse code is so much faster). (oh, you missed that episode on Jay Leno?) You have it made. Enjoy. One day you'll be talking how easy you have it.

I am not going to get into a political discussion, nobody wins. BUT Diane and I drove from our home in NW Kansas to a Vintagers shoot at the NRA Whittington facility near Raton NM. We took hiway 27 from Goodland Kansas to Johnson Ks and then 160 across Colorado to Raton. On the way back, to visit kids we drove 64 to Clayton NW, Guymon Ok, and then 83 down to Perryton Texas. Then 83 back north to the ranch. All along the way we saw closed stores, abandoned towns, empty houses. 3 years ago there was some life along this route. Our town is now down to about 260 pop. from over a 1000 15 years ago. This country is in trouble, I am not smart enough to propose what to do about it. I do wonder, if any of the people we elect ever leave their fatcat offices long enough to see what is happening in the real world. Gun prices? Who cares......????

Last Dollar - I suspect they all went to the Cities to earn a better living. Me, I am in the (or real near) the city earning a living dreaming of the Llano Estacado.

"Gun prices? Who cares.....????"
The real measure will be the gas hogs - my goin' and comings from the country has found a number of big pick-ups and SUVs parked along the roads with for sale signs in the windows.
These poor souls prolly have years to pay on them...and they tain't worth a dime. Much like a gun/rifle that's out of sorts - not worth much either. I feel for the guy with the almost kinda good Parker!

Yes, I agree that things do not look that bright for many, in this country. But before you give up all hope and move to a third world country, that has a "booming economy" and a life expectancy of 50-60 consider this one fact. Poor people in this country are fat, in the rest of the world they are skinny. I been there and seen it with my own eyes. Our worse is still better than most nations best.

The loss of the small town is the result of the loss of the small farm years ago. It is not possible for many to earn a living on a small or even medium size farm. It takes thousands of dollars for one tractor and hundreds of acres to pay for it. One farm became too small to keep up with the overhead. So farmers had to leave the farm to make ends meet. They have to go to town to earn a living. Now the small towns are becoming as economically unprofitable as the small farm did years ago. So the migration to larger towns, cities and the better jobs that they hold.

I have read that in one of the Dakotas they expect 25+% of towns to cease to exist in the next 25 years. Young people move away and only the old remain. They never move back and the old will pass on in the next few decades.

Those farmers, sub-divided their land and made a killing doing so. They're alive n well living in big city and bright lights condos.

I was going to reply to the fOx....but I've lost what he said.

Depends on what part of the country you are in KY Jon. I just read this week that the farmers are the ones making a killing selling their corn for ethanol. John Deere can't make enough combines to keep up with the demand and now they are on back order. And right here in this county the farmers made a killing selling off their farms to developers for all their new subdivisions that are going up. Looks odd seeing a new subdivision with an old farmhouse sitting on the edge of it. But you guys are right- this country is in trouble. To many flat screen TVs, credit card and cell phone bills that people can't afford to pay. I remember when I got a loan back in the 70s for a home, the bank almost wouldn't give you a loan if your monthly house payment was going to exceed the households income in one week. That means your house payment should not be larger than what every working person brings home in one week. I told that to a realtor resently and she thought that was absurd. But that is why so many people are in trouble- living way over their means and trying to stay ahead of the Jones.

Jimmy W - you have that right.

Not sure, but last week I could have bought one with much of CC remaining, solid wood stock, nice barrel blue for about $700. The name on lock plate was L.C.Smith. I thought they went for about $1200 in that condition. I didn't buy it because I have no use for another shotgun.

I dint see any subdivisions anywhere on the trip I described...just empty fields and empty farms. Farmers are making some money, about time...But, the cost of production keeps going up. 300,000 for a combine, diesel doubled, 1800-2000 a month electrric bill to run a pivot.........As to back ordered combines and tractors, theres a bunch on lots around here and busted farm sales every week...As to leaving this country? No way, who said anything about that?

Must be in the middle of nowhere then?
The farmers around here have turned into real estate magnates.
All these country properties use to be corn and bean fields.
My land was bought from such a farmer - Mr. Greenjeans with a briefcase.

When I was in Kansas hunting a few weeks back I remarked to an old farmer/cattleman that the price of diesel must be killing him....his reply was "you got to have something to sell to pay for it".

Welcome to the dog eat dog world - we all must have something to sell to pay for anything we want - be it time in the work-a-day world, or that ol'gun behind the kitchen door.
The beanfields of the past, have patios now!

Well John, I am not sure I agree with this analysis of our success. No doubt about it, you can get good tasting calories easier in the US of A than about anywhere in the world. Fast food (MdDonalds, Burger King, KFC, Pizza Hut, et. al.) have made this country fat. But better? Jake

I would imagine the price of gas will stabilize around $5.50-$6. Lets face it even if it reached prices seen in some Euro counties most of the folks on this BBS would still be able to afford expensive guns. Come on, give me a break and quit bitching.

I got out of the SUV market before the big increase in fuel prices. About a year and a half ago, I saw $3.00 gas coming at me and sold a good 2500 series, late model 4 wheel drive, 454 cubic inch Suburban for $1000. It took me awhile, but I got my $1000 and invested it in Parkers. If I had not had such good timing, I never would have gotten anywhere near $1000 for that $15,000 truck and wouldn't have that collection of Parkers. I only have one over 400 cubic inch vehicle to sell now. I may use it for a planter.

You should have learned in mid-70s? I have seen pictues of folks standing in line for gas. I hope you got $10,000 and not $1,000 for that tank. Can you imagine that some people are ignorant enough to think gas will or should cost < equivalent amt. of fancy "spring water" again. Some countries like Iran demand payment for oil in Euro or Swiss Franks and not USD. Add to that increased demand from countries like China, India,....that have been lifted out of poverty by US business class. We really didn't need that cheap shit from China did we?

eightbore: Confused and curious as to how many and what kind of Parkers you were able to invest in with the $1000 you got for your late model Suburban? TT

If the price of oil keeps rising, it will continue to have a detrimental effect on the economy as a whole (hole?). I think that means just about all used guns in the U.S. that have little marketability outside the U.S. (or it's impracticable to market them outside the U.S.) will eventually fall in value. Sure, the high end will be the last to fall in value and the first to rise in value, just like realestate, IMO.

Glen Lowellthorne..That "middle of nowhere" you talk about produces abut 80% of the wheat in this country, and much of the edible beans, sunflowers etc. We dont grow much corn for ethanol, cost of production is VERY high and transport is a problem. You people in the east are fortunate to live in rent controlled or subsidized housing, get food stamps and other publice assistance. The west coast guys live off the taxpayer by working for aerospace companies., and overhead bloated contracts....Read that carefully, because it as much a wrong generalization as the crap I read about farmers. We are ALL faced with problems in this country.......Dig in

The last 1000.00 Parker I looked at was well past the beater stage of life. Maybe ol'8b has put his riches into the tank too many times, and is taking less condition now!

Nice graded ones seem to cost 6k or more now. Last intro grade Spartan? 12br in nice original condition and unturned screws went for $2200.

Nope, Jager, it was not $10,000, it was $1,000, and I don't remember what I did with the money. Regardless of whether we should accept $4.00 gas as reasonable, changing over to a vehicle that uses half what the Suburban did results in "real savings". I went on the road for the last few days and I wish I had taken a picture of every Suburban in a front yard with a for sale sign. Where I live, a brand new $40,000 Suburban is usually a third or fourth vehicle in a family, but the older ones are in the hands of real working people and are of no use to them at ten miles per gallon.

eightbore, I don't think there's an alternative to accepting $4 gas. We're looking at $5.50 here (for the larger gallon) and anticipating $6.70 as the norm. We have no choice in the matter. The primaries' political pandering of a summer-break was absolute madness. Only higher taxes and prices can get us out of the mess we've made for ourselves. Those with lower incomes are already hurting badly here.

King, I just wish my wife would have allowed me to keep the 454 as kind of a memorial to my youth. If I had a gun I couldn't afford to feed, I could hide it in a safe, but the Suburban would be kind of obvious sitting behind the asparagus. It was some great car, once hauled nearly two tons of lead and ammunition without a trailer. I gave exact change to a toll attendant on the PA Turnpike before she realized I was overweight and owed more money. I said "thank you", stepped on the gas as she stepped out of the booth, arms flailing. Luckily, they never came after me.

I think I saw your picture in a Post Office, "wanted, for toll evasion"

I honestly wasn't sure what she wanted me for until I went through a booth with another similar load and was charged way more than my normal two axle toll for the same exit.

Reminded me of the time I was in Oslo a few yrs ago. I headed into town from the airport on the 'freeway' only to find that there was a toll booth just before Oslo. No gate arm, but it had cameras and a lighted automatic sign. Some number of Kronen currency lit up and I scrambled to dig change out of my pocket. After dumping all the change I had into the repository, it was still lit red. I looked at the line behind me and decided I'd just take off thru the red. I think there's still an APB out for me in Norway.

It takes two years for the letter to come from Italy, Chuck. Respectful and just cost of the toll, it was a pleasure to pay it.

Gun prices (values) make little sense to me and I guess they are worth what someone will pay. I use Bluebook and Standard Catalog prices as a reference, but even they often show a wide disparity for the same gun in the same condition. I have seen high condition Elsies not move at well under book and low condition Fox or Parkers go at 100%+ prices. Then we see folks do a $2500 Turnbull restoration on a field grade gun that might be worth half that in 100% original condition. I don't get it, unless it may be a case of strong sentimental value, i.e., restoring Dads gun for Fathers Day, etc. I've made comments about "Dick and Craig" who seem to dominate about 1/3 of the ads in GunDigest with guns that seem way overpriced for their advertised condition. Maybe I'm just jealous that they have so much stock, and they must sell at least some of it to pay for all those classified ads. Or maybe they own or work for GunDigest and get free ad space and first crack at incoming ads. There goes the jealousy again. I do take some issue with those who say we should be happy with $4.00 gas and the resulting inflation of everything else just because Europeans pay more. Certainly, there are many factors at play. Declining dollar, increased global demand, (how much gas is a Chinese guy making $15.00 a week buying?), and commodities speculators. Anyone here remember Nelson and Lamar Hunt and what they did to silver and precious metals? Did they perhaps give a roadmap to doing the same with Oil? Then compare other aspects of a Europeans life to ours. Back in 1992, I started a new job and had no vacation for a year, and then one week. I worked a July 4th shutdown with two Swiss technicians, and the one who spoke English was astonished and unbeleiving at my lack of vacation (holiday) time. He told me he got 15 weeks with 12 yrs. seniority. When I asked him how much a new employee such as myself would get at his company in Switzerland, he replied, "Six weeks... in Switzerland, everyone at least six weeks." Knowing Switzerland has nationalized health care and retirement and therefore very high taxes, I asked him about his tax rates. In his heavy French accent, he said, "Oh is very high, very high, maybe feefteen percent." I thought he said fifty percent and he said "No, feefteen, feefteen." So there was I, in the 28% bracket for federal, plus state, local, real estate, school, sales, gas, and a million other taxes, and I'm starting to wonder if we're being given a bill of goods. I later found most of Europe was much the same, in terms of better pay and benefits, more vacation time, and much shorter work weeks. Consider our Automakers buyouts of $140,000 to get rid of older higher paid employees and replace them with $14.50/hr. workers with poor benefits and no pension plan. At the same time Volkswagen of Germany offered 240,000 Euros which was $326,000 U.S., and they wanted to return to a 32 hr. workweek, up from the current 28.5 hr. week. I.G. Metall, their union, went nuts. I could go on for hours, but my point is that we are in deep doo-doo, and the problem is much more complex than paying $4.00 for gas and taking a beating on the Suburban.

Keith, VERY well said, very well said.

Keith- you mentioned the "Dick and Craig" ads that are all over GUN LIST like a cheap suit- I called them ONCE- they had advertised a 1934 Winchester M54 in .270 Win as a SuperGrade-even gave a serial no. which Rule's book put at 1931 mfg. Super Grade came out in 1936-very few M54 SuperGrades extant- now Model 70's-Saw one about a year ago- MI gun show l954 era M70 .270 Win purported "Super Grade" dude was asking $4000 for it: few "problems"- no Super Grade QD sling swivels, no black forearm tip- Pachmayr Black vented pad- and when I asked him to field strip the barrel/receiver group from the stock so I could see the date and letter "S" stamp on the barrel that indictes a "Super Grade" M70- he "flinched"- he stammered- sure it's a Super Grade Mr.. just look at the magazine plate_ Yup- it was marked Super Grade- a l954 M70 with a "borrowed" floorplate from a "parts" M70- the script was the style of a l940's M70 Super Grade- how does that Latin phrase go- "Caveat Empetor?""