doublegunshop.com - home Forums General Discussion DoubleGun BBS @ doublegunshop.com The validity of population estimates.....

Be it drumming counts, turd counts, or even aerial observation, the numbers published by the various State agencies for game density never seem to quite pan out (at least in my experience). I know it's an inexact science, but the number mentioned by Ted in his earlier post about the ruffed grouse numbers in Minnesota are a classic example. A 57% increase in any valid statistic would clearly imply a significant increase in any given population of game animals. If Ruffed Grouse drumming counts were really a useful metric (which you might think it is, given the time and money invested by Minnesota & probably many other DNR-types of agencies) then a lifetime of hunting them should provide at least some sort of correlation. In my experience (almost 50-years of bird-hunting now) they simply do not. If that doesn't define junk science, then I am at a loss for how one would.

Sadly, I see it from a far-more jaded and cynical viewpoint now....it is simply shilling (ie. essentially false advertising!) to boost licence sales and to fill regional hotels and restaurants.

Not getting what you want doesn't make it "Junk Science".

As long as the drumming surveys are done consistently over the same routes in the same habitat corridors, they are a valuable research tool. The data they collect (there really aren't any other landscape level methods available for recording ruffed grouse at a low annual cost to researchers anyway) as long consistently collected, is excellent for comparison purposes.
Area by area, year by year, county by county, decades of data providing plenty of inference.

But it is not 100% correlational to hunter success every year.
Statistically, it has very high confidence levels, which span many years.

ALL KINDS OF THINGS CAN HAPPEN, OR NOT HAPPEN, from the spring displays of the male ruffed grouse, until the fall arrival of expectant hunters.

lloyd: drumming counts are recorded in early spring...two legged hunter kills are recorded in the fall...lot can happen between spring and fall...bad weather, predation and most recently virus carrying mosquitoes take a toll...so that by the time hunting season opens many birds are gone...

I probably have less of an objection to the activity and the data it produces than I do with how it is seemingly portrayed. I agree that over time, in a stable environment (no net loss of habitat, no dramatic changes in predation) drumming counts can likely give the field biologist/game manager some sense of overall survival rate from any winter kill issues. As has been stated here earlier, that number is probably meaningless to hunters in the Fall season, but that is not how it is employed by the public relations folks.

The Minnesota DNR webpage repeated the results from that 57% drumming count increase on almost every publication (and active webpage) on the subject as if it meant something very significant. The implications of the "data" were unmistakeable and the attitude of any further conversations on the subject was almost "giddy" with anticipation. Moreover, the DNR clearly did this with the full knowledge that it would be picked up and amplified by every private publication and service industry related to the sport of bird hunting.

Many (if not most) of the people who travelled to the region to take part in that "bounty-crop" of birds arguably relied to their detriment on that now-clearly irrelevant data (certainly from a hunter's perspective). Thus, my mild ire on the subject. In advertising, that is called "puffing", in medical science it would plausibly be grounds for malpractice, but in recreational activities it is simply "oh well, that is hunting".

I still saw and killed plenty of birds, certainly enough to make it a successful trip, so I have no grounds for complaint. I would have been there no-matter what they broadcast about conditions, but...if I had used that "data" to plan a "trip of a lifetime"......I'd be a little more than just disappointed.

I understand hunting as well as shooting.

Lloyd, you have the entire matter bass ackwards.

If a researcher collected data using normal regular techniques, and then decided that they would not include or publish the data that didn't fit their expectations, now THAT would be junk science.

No one is harmed by the publication of the facts.

IMHO, The Food & Drug Administration would not agree with your assessment of how the "information" was presented by this particular agency on their very specific "product" (ie., ruffed grouse). Look up their definition of "deceptive practices" and "misleading advertising". It's a very good thing for the DNR that we're not talking about medical devices or any defined-type of pharmaceutical.

I think there is an assumption here that may not be so. The various agencies mission statements probably have little to do with supporting hunters, and more to do with some eco renewable green thought. Their motivations may be to show that they're justifying their budget by generating and submitting reports. I believe there're some dedicated wildlife agents that visit here, but I wonder if much of this 'data collection' is a bit more subjective than could stand up to decent scientific methods. Things like different eyes and ears, levels of enthusiasm, experience and training, and actual field time probably make differences.

Still worth taking a look at. I can recall years ago my BIL and I went into a tiny country watering hole to ask for tips on where the ducks were, while on a side trip many hours from home. That didn't work out too well either.

Lucky you didn�t get beat up craigd.

�trip of a lifetime�? To East nowhere Minnesota? I suppose it�s a step up from Nova Scotia. (Helloooo, King!). Here in Detroit we just call it goin� Up North.


GP Rec Pts
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8 1-6-1 3 Aie.
(Wings just got smoked by Vancouver)

www.glennbeck.com/2012/12/10/photos-a-crumbling-detriot

East nowhere has it's charm. Detroit, not so much.

Best,
Ted



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Can you believe someone actually claims to be from there?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_from_Detroit


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I (heart) Detroit.